The BEA released their estimate of March vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated light vehicle sales of 11.37 million SAAR in March 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 32.1% from the revised February sales rate, and down 34.1% from March 2019.Sales in February were revised down from 16.83 million SAAR to 16.73 million SAAR.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March 2020 (red).My view – before the health crisis – was that sales would move mostly sideways at near record levels this year. Going forward, the impact of COVID-19 will be significant.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 11.37 million SAAR…. [Read More...]

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. … Federal government employment rose by 18,000 in March, reflecting the hiring of 17,000 workers for the 2020 Census….The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 59,000 from +273,000 to +214,000, and the change for February was revised up by 2,000 from +273,000 to +275,000. With these revisions, employment gains … [Read More...]

From the LA Times: Gov. Gavin Newsom said he ‘owns’ coronavirus testing lapses, announces task force In a Saturday news conference, Newsom announced a task force that he said will work toward a fivefold increase in daily testing in the state by identifying supply shortages and adding testing locations.The announcement comes as California continues to see dramatic increases in people hospitalized with the virus, with 2,300 patients in the state. Another 3,267 people hospitalized are suspected of having COVID-19, but are awaiting testing results.Overnight, the number of coronavirus patients in California’s intensive care unit beds rose nearly 11% to 1,008 people.In all, Newsom said 126,700 people have been tested in California, a state of nearly 40 million people. Of those who have been tested, 13,000 are awaiting results.Test-and-… [Read More...]

The March ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 52.5%, down from 57.3% in February. The employment index decreased to 47.0%, from 55.6%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: March 2020 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® conomic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 122nd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business.®The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 52.5 percent, 4.8 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. … [Read More...]

The key report this week is the March CPI.The FOMC minutes on Wednesday might be interesting.—– Monday, Apr 6th —–No major economic releases scheduled.—– Tuesday, Apr 7th —–10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings increased in January to 6.963 million from 6.552 million in December.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 7% year-over-year, and Quits were up slightly year-over-year.10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for February.3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.—– Wednesday, Apr 8th —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase … [Read More...]

Note: The graphs are six week averages, and the economy was very different at the end of March – so next month we will see a sharp decline in traffic due to COVID-19.From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. A confluence of factors caused weekly average U.S. rail carloads in March 2020 to fall to their lowest level since sometime before January 1988, when our data begin. Total U.S. carloads in March 2020 were down 6.0% from March 2019 and down 3.0% from February 2020. Meanwhile, U.S. intermodal volume in March 2020 was down 12.2% from March 2019 (its biggest year-over-year percentage decline since September 2009) and down 6.3% from February 2020.The clearest example so far of the impact of … [Read More...]

Germany is conducting 50,000 tests per day, and scientists are advising Germany to increase testing to 200,000 per day.The population of Germany is 83 million, about one-fourth of the US. To match Germany’s current testing level, the US needs 200,000 tests per day, and the US needs four times that many based on the advice of some scientists.The US testing shortfall continues. We need someone in charge resolving any bottleneck issues – PPE, manpower, swabs, reagents – whatever the issue, someone needs to be fixing it.Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country. My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.Notes: Data for the previous couple of days … [Read More...]

Seasonal flu activity has slowed sharply, and is now low, and that will help with the rapidly increasing COVID-19 pandemic.From the CDC: Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance ReportLaboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease sharply and is now low. Influenza-like illness activity, while lower than last week, is still elevated..…Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease and is now low. … Recent changes in healthcare seeking behavior, including increasing use of telemedicine and recommendations to limit emergency department (ED) visits to severe illness, as well as increasing levels of social distancing, are affecting the number of persons with ILI and their reasons for seeking care in outpatient and ED settings…. [Read More...]

The March report was much worse than expected (due to uncertainty about the timing of layoffs), but the report is already “stale”. The April report will be much worse with job losses in the millions (The April report will show the most job losses ever).The headline number for March was 701 thousand jobs lost, and the previous two months were revised down 57 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%. The BLS noted many issues with the employment report this month (see Frequently asked questions: The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on The Employment Situation for March 2020) and it appears the unemployment rate might be a percentage point higher (but that will seem like a small error next month). Earlier: March Employment Report: 701,000 Jobs … [Read More...]

The testing shortfall continues. We need someone in charge resolving any bottleneck issues – PPE, manpower, swabs, reagents – whatever the issue, someone needs to be fixing it.Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country. My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.Also, I’m no longer including pending tests. So this is just test results reported daily.There were 103,940 test results reported over the last 24 hours. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 26% (red line – … [Read More...]

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 28 MarchReflecting the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. hotel industry reported significant year-over-year declines in the three key performance metrics during the week of 22-28 March 2020, according to data from STR.In comparison with the week of 24-30 March 2019, the industry recorded the following:• Occupancy: -67.5% to 22.6%• Average daily rate (ADR): -39.4% to US$79.92• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -80.3% to US$18.05“Year-over-year declines of this magnitude will unfortunately be the ‘new normal’ until the number of new COVID-19 cases slows significantly,” said Jan Freitag, STR’s senior VP of lodging insights. “Occupancy continues to fall to unprecedented lows, with more than 75% of rooms empty around the nation … [Read More...]

There is still far too little testing in the U.S.We need:1) More testing.2) Better reporting (all tests, positive and negative).3) A national test-and-trace program. Name the head of the program now – so that person can update everyone on the progress.Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country. My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.Also, I include all tests in the total including pending.The percent positive excludes the pending tests.There were 101,147 tests reported over the last 24 hours. Click on graph … [Read More...]

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: January Case-Shiller Results & February Forecast: Ancient HistoryIt may have been only two months ago, but in many ways it might as well be ancient history. …The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 2.6% and 3.1% year-over-year, respectively.emphasis addedThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.0% in February, up from 3.9% in January. The Zillow forecast is … [Read More...]

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency was declined to 0.65% in February, from 0.66% in January. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.76% in February 2019.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since June 2007.The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.Click on graph for larger imageBy vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 2.46% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (4% of portfolio), 4.07% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (94% of portfolio), only 0.35% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing … [Read More...]

There is still far too little testing in the U.S.Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country. My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.When I first started posting this data (thanks to the COVID Tracking Project), testing was so low, that just tracking the number of tests made sense.The percentage positive is also critical. Unfortunately some states and labs don’t report all negative tests, although that is supposed to change soon.The real key is to have enough tests that the US can test all people with symptoms (even mild), all close contacts of those testing positive (aka Test-and-Trace), healthcare … [Read More...]