The key report scheduled for this week is December Existing Home sales.For manufacturing, the January Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey will be released.—– Monday, Jan 20th —–All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day—– Tuesday, Jan 21st —–No major economic releases scheduled.—– Wednesday, Jan 22nd —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November 2019. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.During the day: The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).—– Thursday, Jan 23… [Read More...]

The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost housing market in second half of year as home prices post strong gains in December, C.A.R. reportsClosed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 398,880 units in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.December’s sales total was down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November and marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark. Still, … [Read More...]

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in December, up 0.9% from November’s preliminary pace and up 8.0% from last December’s weak seasonally-adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a significantly higher YOY gain, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting this December’s higher business day count comparted to last December.On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of December was down by about 11.1% from a year earlier.Finally, local realtor/… [Read More...]

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.378 million SAAR, up from 1.365 million SAAR.• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be decrease to 77.1%.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January). The consensus is for a reading of 99.3.• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS. [Read More...]

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 216,000 initial claims, up from 214,000 last week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 3.4, up from 2.4.• At 10:00 AM, The January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 74, down from 76. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.• At 10:00 AM, Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, The Outlook for Housing, At the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City: 2020 Economic Forecast Breakfast, Kansas City, Mo. [Read More...]

Fed’s Beige Book “This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on information collected on or before January 6, 2020.”Economic activity generally continued to expand modestly in the final six weeks of 2019. The Dallas and Richmond Districts noted above-average growth, while Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City reported sub-par growth. Consumer spending grew at a modest to moderate pace, with a number of Districts noting some pickup from the prior reporting period. On balance, holiday sales were said to be solid, with several Districts noting the growing importance of online shopping. Vehicle sales generally expanded moderately, though a handful of Districts reported flat sales. Tourism was mixed, with growth reported in the eastern seaboard Districts but activity little changed in the … [Read More...]

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.• At 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, up from 3.5.• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. [Read More...]

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Face More Volatility Later This WeekMortgage rates didn’t do much today, and that’s good enough news considering the average lender is closer to the lower end of the rate range since early October. The only counterpoint would be that there isn’t much distance between the highs and the lows during that time (not a bad thing, just a bit of context). In other words, rates are “pretty close” to the lowest levels of the past several months, but they’re also not too far from the highest levels. [Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios 30YR FIXED 3.75%]emphasis addedTuesday:• At 6:00 AM, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for December from … [Read More...]

It is always interesting to see the consensus outlook. The Chicago Fed held an Economic Outlook Symposium in December with more than 140 economists and analysts, and they just published the 2020 Forecasts. Note that the consensus always misses turning points, but I don’t expect a recession in 2020 either.The consensus is for real GDP to increase 1.7% Q4 over Q4 in 2020 (my view is GDP growth will be a little higher than the consensus). The consensus is the unemployment rate will be at 3.7% in Q4 2020 (my view is the unemployment rate will be lower).The consensus is that housing starts will increase slightly to 1.28 million in 2020 (my view is starts will be somewhat higher).Unfortunately they didn’t forecast employment growth – I expect employment growth to slow further … [Read More...]

My December Employment Preview.Goldman’s December Payrolls preview.Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.5%. [Read More...]

From the HAR: The Houston Housing Market Charges Across the Finish Line for a Record 2019Low mortgage interest rates, healthy employment growth and a stable supply of homes created fertile ground for the Houston real estate market, which blossomed to record levels in 2019. Single-family home sales for the full year surpassed 2018’s record volume by nearly five percent. December delivered the year’s strongest percentage increase in single-family home sales. However, as 2020 gets underway, housing inventory has shrunk slightly, which could narrow options for consumers that may be hoping to buy a home in the new year.According to the Houston Association of Realtors’ (HAR) latest annual report, 2019 single-family home sales rose 4.8 percent to 86,205. Sales of all property types totaled 102,593, which represents a 4.3-percent increase … [Read More...]

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 156,000 payroll jobs added in December, up from 67,000 added in November. [Read More...]

This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports year ended with higher home prices, dip in annual home sales; GLVAR housing statistics for December 2019According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condos, townhomes and other residential properties sold in Southern Nevada during 2019 was 41,269. That’s down from 42,876 total sales in 2018 and from 45,388 in 2017.The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during December was 3,214. Compared to one year ago, December sales were up 21.8% for homes and up 17.2% for condos and townhomes. …By the end of December, GLVAR reported 5,538 single-… [Read More...]

Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $43.9 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $47.2 billion in October.• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for a decrease to 58.4 from 60.7.• Early, Reis Q4 2019 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates. [Read More...]