Here is the post earlier on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in JulyIt has been over fourteen years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release today, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 18.6% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 4% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is still 12% below the bubble peak.The year-over-year growth in prices increased to 4.8% nationally.Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted). Case-Shiller and others … [Read More...]

As part of the new home sales report released last week, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.From the Census Bureau: “The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2020 was $312,800. The average sales price was $369,000.”The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. Click on graph for larger image.During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales. When housing started to recovery – with limited finished lots in recovering areas – builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits.The average price in August 2020 was $369,000, down 0.8% from July, and down 8.4% from the peak in 2017. … [Read More...]

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 700,898 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 35,289 positive tests.Over 21,000 Americans have died from COVID so far in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.0% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace…. [Read More...]

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 933,873 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 47,733 positive tests.Almost 21,000 Americans have died from COVID so far in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.1% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace…. [Read More...]

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the third estimate of Q2 GDP, the September ISM manufacturing index, September auto sales, Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.—– Monday, September 28th —–10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.—– Tuesday, September 29th —–9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The consensus is for a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.—– Wednesday, September 30th —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage … [Read More...]

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 3.17%, up from 3.12% in July. Freddie’s rate is up from 0.61% in August 2019.This is the highest serious delinquency rate since January 2013.Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.Click on graph for larger imageMortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes – and they will be able to … [Read More...]

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in AugustWhile the FHA’s “official” monthly loan performance report for August is not yet available on its website, data from the FHA’s Early Warning System indicates that FHA’s Early Warning System indicate that the serious delinquency rate on FHA-insured single-family loans increased to above 11% in August, an all-time monthly high.Delinquency rates in the EWS do not match those in the official report, but the two delinquency rates tend to move together over time. Delinquency Rate, FHA-Insured SF LoansOfficial Report Total30-day60-daySDQ 2/29/202010.85%5.16%1.65%4.04% 3/31/202011.17%5.59%1.61%3.97% 4/30/202015.52%9.20%2.28%4.04% 5/31/202017.27%6.37%5.99%4.91% 6/30/202017.41%4.74%3.71%8.96% 7/31/202017.24%4.15%2.51%10.58% … [Read More...]

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 887,884 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 44,315 positive tests.Over 19,000 Americans have died from COVID so far in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.0% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace…. [Read More...]

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 19 SeptemberU.S. hotel occupancy was nearly flat from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR.13-19 September 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 48.6% (-31.9%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$95.84 (-28.9%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$46.54 (-51.6%)…Demand rose slightly (+0.3%), and the highest occupancy markets were once again those housing displaced residents from Hurricane Laura and western wildfires, with California South/Central showing the highest level in the metric (74.7%). The Louisiana South (72.8%) and Louisiana North (72.3%) markets were also among the top five highest occupancy levels for the week.emphasis addedThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy … [Read More...]

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90.1 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of September 20he National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 90.1 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by September 20 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.This is a 1.7-percentage point, or 192,936-household decrease from the share who paid rent through September 20, 2019 and compares to 90.0 percent that had paid by August 20, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “This morning’s results show the real-world impact of lawmakers failing in their responsibilities to their constituents,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. … [Read More...]

The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2020 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $119.0 trillion during the second quarter of 2020. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.5 trillion.Household debt increased 0.5 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2020. Consumer credit shrank at an annual rate of 6.6 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3 percent. Click on graph for larger image.The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. With the sharp decline in GDP in Q2, net worth as a percent of GDP increased sharply.This includes real estate … [Read More...]