Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of January 5th.From Black Knight: Slow Improvement in Forbearance Numbers ContinuesThe number of mortgages in active forbearance declined slightly once again this week, continuing the trend of very slow improvement seen in recent weeks. Total active forbearance plans are now down 1.5% from last month. This gradual rate of improvement sets the stage for a large number of plans to still be in active status when the first wave of forbearances begins to expire at the end of March….New plans edged higher thanks to an increase in restart activity, but overall, these numbers remain below pre-holiday levels. Forbearance starts were up 10,000 … [Read More...]

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Ends 2020 on a High NoteThe Dodge Momentum Index jumped 9.2% in December to 134.6 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 123.3. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 14.0%, while the institutional component rose by 0.3%. The gain in the commercial component of the Momentum Index was heartening even though the increase was mostly the result of a sizeable increase in warehouse planning. The warehouse sector has been one of the few areas of construction that has flourished … [Read More...]

One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?Tracking inventory will be very important this year, and I’ll be using some weekly sources.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of January 8th, inventory is at 397 thousand (7 day average), compared to 738 thousand the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 46%.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube. [Read More...]

Note: I usually post this monthly, but I hesitated recently due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But I’ve received a number of requests lately – the recent numbers are ugly.Here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the lag, so I’ll just stick to the beginning of each term.Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the ’80s, … [Read More...]

Note: I’m looking forward to not posting this data in a few months. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases – and percent positive – to do effective test-and-trace.There were 2,000,196 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 261,993 positive tests.Almost 27,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 13.1% (red line … [Read More...]

The key reports this week are December CPI and retail sales.For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January NY Fed manufacturing survey will be released.—– Monday, Jan 11th —–No major economic releases scheduled.—– Tuesday, Jan 12th —–6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings increased in October to 6.652 million from 6.494 million in September.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 9% year-over-year, and Quits were up 10% year-over-year.—– Wednesday, Jan 13th —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the … [Read More...]

Note: I’m looking forward to not posting this data in a few months. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases – and percent positive – to do effective test-and-trace.There were 2.1 million test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 310,000 positive tests.Over 23,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 14.8% (red … [Read More...]

My December Employment PreviewGoldman December Payrolls PreviewFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 70 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.8%.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms through November.The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate. [Read More...]

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 70 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.8%.• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed a loss of 123,000 private sector jobs, well below the consensus estimate of 88 thousand jobs added. The ADP report hasn’t been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests the BLS report could be weaker than expected.• ISM Surveys: The ISM manufacturing employment index increased in December to 51.5%, up from 48.4% in November. This would suggest essentially approximately 10,000 manufacturing jobs lost in December. ADP showed 21,000 manufacturing jobs lost.The ISM Services employment index decreased in December to 48.2% from 51.5% in November. This would suggest around 25,000 … [Read More...]

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2020 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019.However heavy truck sales started declining in late 2019 due to lower oil prices.Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”Click on graph for larger image.Heavy truck sales really declined towards the end of March due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices, but have since rebounded.Heavy truck sales were at 454 thousand SAAR in December, down from 477 thousand SAAR in November, and … [Read More...]