Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to Black Knight, 7.76% of mortgages were delinquent in May, up from 6.45% in April, and up from 3.36% in May 2019. Black Knight also reported that 0.38% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.49% a year ago.This gives a total of 8.14% delinquent or in foreclosure.Press Release: Black Knight’s May 2020 Mortgage MonitorToday, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage performance, housing and public records datasets. As Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, despite record-low interest rates and record-high levels of tappable equity – the amount available to homeowners with … [Read More...]

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 654,489 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 42,551 positive tests. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.5% (red line). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. [Read More...]

Note: The question on lost income is always since March 13, 2020 – so this percentage will not decline.From the Census Bureau: Measuring Household Experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) PandemicThe U.S. Census Bureau, in collaboration with five federal agencies, is in a unique position to produce data on the social and economic effects of COVID-19 on American households. The Household Pulse Survey is designed to deploy quickly and efficiently, collecting data to measure household experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Data will be disseminated in near real-time to inform federal and state response and recovery planning.…Data collection for the Household Pulse Survey began on April 23, 2020. The Census Bureau will collect data for 90 days, and release data on a weekly basis.This will be updated … [Read More...]

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 52.6% in June, up from 43.1% in May. The employment index was at 42.1%, up from 32.1% last month, and the new orders index was at 56.4%, up from 31.8%.From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in June, with the overall economy notching a second month of growth after one month of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The June PMI® registered 52.6 percent, up 9.5 percentage points from the May … [Read More...]

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 644,930 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 52,406 positive tests. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.1% (red line). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. [Read More...]

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services. … The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000, from -20.7 million to -20.8 million, and the change for May was revised up by 190,000, from +2.5 million to +2.7 million. With these revisions, employment in … [Read More...]

This will be a light week for economic data.The focus will be on Job Openings and Weekly unemployment claims.—– Monday, July 6th —–10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 50.0, up from 45.4.—– Tuesday, July 7th —–10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings decreased in April to 5.046 million from 6.011 million in March.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 31% year-over-year, and Quits were down 49% year-over-year.10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for May.—– Wednesday, July 8th —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) … [Read More...]

The DOL reported:In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250. emphasis addedThe previous week was revised up.This does not include the 839,563 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.Click on graph for larger image.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 1,503,750.This was close to the consensus forecast of 1.4 million … [Read More...]

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 721,054 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 57,562 positive tests. This is a new record. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.0% (red line). For the status of contact tracing by state, … [Read More...]

The labor market swings have been huge, and the June employment report was better than expected with 4.8 million jobs added.Leisure and hospitality led the way with 2.088 million jobs added in June, following 1.403 million jobs added in May. Leisure and hospitality lost 8.318 million jobs in March and April, so about 42% of those jobs were added back in May and June.However, these are the jobs most susceptible to a surge in COVID infections, and leisure and hospitality will likely be under pressure in July.Earlier: June Employment Report: 4.8 Million Jobs Added, 11.1% Unemployment RateIn June, the year-over-year employment change was minus 13 million jobs.One of the keys to follow will be the number of workers on temporary layoff. This increased from 801 thousand in February, … [Read More...]

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.From Black Knight: Forbearances Reverse Course, See Largest Weekly Decline YetOverall, the number of active forbearance plans is down 104K from last week for the lowest weekly total active forbearances we’ve seen since the first week of May. This latest drop brings us down 183K from the peak on May 22 and brings us back to the trend of improvement we’d seen throughout June.According to daily mortgage payment tracking data, as of the end of June, roughly a quarter of homeowners in forbearance had remitted their June payment. That’s as compared to 46% in April and approximately 30% in May.What remains to be seen is what impact … [Read More...]

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.6 billion in May, up $4.8 billion from $49.8 billion in April, revised.May exports were $144.5 billion, $6.6 billion less than April exports. May imports were $199.1 billion, $1.8 billion less than April imports.emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.Both exports and imports decreased in May. Exports are down 32% compared to May 2019; imports are down 25% compared to May 2019.Both imports and exports have decreased sharply due to COVID-19.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is … [Read More...]

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 634,822 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 52,815 positive tests. This is the second consecutive day over 50,000. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.3% (red line). For the status of contact tracing … [Read More...]

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 27 JuneU.S. hotel performance data for the week ending 27 June showed another small rise from previous weeks and less severe year-over-year declines, according to STR.21-27 June 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 46.2% (-38.7%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$95.37 (-29.0%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$44.03 (-56.5%)emphasis addedThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).Usually hotel occupancy starts to pick up seasonally in early June. So … [Read More...]

The BEA released their estimate of May vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated light vehicle sales of 13.05 million SAAR in June 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 5.7% from the revised May sales rate, and down 24.1% from June 2019.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for June 2020 (red).The impact of COVID-19 is significant, and it appears April was the worst month.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 13.05 million SAAR.Sales collapsed in the second half of March, and really declined in April. However sales rebounded in May, and increased further in June. [Read More...]

UPDATE: First post didn’t include California numbers. Now updated.The US is now conducting over 500,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 621,114 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 52,982 positive tests. This is the most daily positive tests. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.5… [Read More...]