Good morning friends This is an example of example of the morning newsletter I write daily for my clients. If you would like to follow along, you can do so by clicking here. Check out this video: https://videos.danielstrading.com/watch/sfUnPvu1tG3b2y25hbkXLW? The first was from the Chinese Ag Ministry announcing that they have agreed to phase 1 deal. Im not sure the intention of this wording, it sounds both encouraging but also cautious as if they want to ensure the US is operating in good faith. Here is the quote “according to phase 1 of the agreement with the US, China will increase purchase of US farm goods and the US will create favorable conditions for it. The goal is to stop … [Read More...]
Bold ECB Plan Fails to Quell QE Talk
This week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a bigger and broader package of stimulus measures than anyone anticipated. But don’t hold your breath for a material near-term boost to growth or inflation in the region. [Read More...]
Squawk: Equities plunge after US Jobs report but rebound sets risk…
Equities plunge after US Jobs report but rebound sets risk higher A fairly aggressive selloff for US (and also global) equity averages on Friday after a very weak US Employment report reinforcing a… [Read More...]
The Swine Times 10/17 – Trade Rec
Hello Hog Traders We caught a nice 3.00+ move over the last 27 hours, given the volatility we are going to take profit and try to sell a bounce. USDA exports have been a bullish driver, I think the odds are pretty good the numbers will be high tomorrow. If it gets back above 70, you can expect to hear from us again. BUY 1 UNIT OF DEC HOGS You should be flat the board. On a side note, the Chinese ag ministry made some comments last night about their hog herd supplies are bottoming and production will return to previous levels in 2020. That seems unlikely from where we sit, but for now the back of the curve is falling. April and summer hog contracts are too high without a… [Read More...]
Wide Moat Investing in a Leaky Boat market
I wrote six months back (March 2014) at http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2014/03/replicate-and-imitate.htmlthat “I missed Nigeria (A mistake I hope to fix in coming weeks and months).” I’ve not been smart enough and yet to correct that blunder.7UP Bottling (Pepsi Cola) at the time was 70 Nigerian Naira, in six months since then the latest price of 7UP is 162, these are high quality ideas where one can bet 10% of a large fund portfolio. In Calender 2014 the company has appreciated 128% as of date.Buffett, “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks” In this case the ‘chronically leaking boat’ for me is absence of … [Read More...]
Inflation Plus 5%: Still a Reasonable Goal?
Many US endowments and foundations plan to give 5% of assets annually, while seeking to preserve the inflation-adjusted value of their assets. That’s become a very challenging goal. [Read More...]
The far-reaching effects of central bank policy
The impact of central banks should not be underestimated. And I don’t just mean their impact on economic growth and interest rates. Central banks are also a driving force of financial markets. As the chart above shows, the size of G4 (US, Eurozone, UK and Japan) central bank balance sheet as a % of GDP has risen relentlessly over the last 20 years, and global equities have more or less followed suit. The correlation has become even tighter since the financial crisis – a period that, not by coincidence, has seen unprecedented stimulatory monetary policy. In the last 20 years, only two major equity rallies have not been accompanied by significant increases in global central bank liquidity: the internet bubble (2000-2001) and the housing bubble (2006-2008). Surely… [Read More...]
Macro Monday Book: Tactical Long on S&P Futures #SaxoStrats
Tactical long with the thesis that technicals are improving and US earnings momentum will give US equities some needed momentum upwards…taking us out of the choppy range of the last few weeks. [Read More...]
Squawk: HP You can choose any one of the people going…
HP You can choose any one of the people going to contact Customer Service via email or phone support service as his advice and help services a teams of experts. Sometimes you need a little problems… [Read More...]
Bitcoin And Cryptos Tank After Futures Trading Begins
During the last week of September, the major cryptocurrencies got crushed. Bitcoin fell more than 20% from September 21st through September 26th and then slightly rebounded on the 27th by a little less than 2%. A 20% drop for the most well-known cryptocurrency is not uncommon these days, as it fell that much back in […] The post Bitcoin And Cryptos Tank After Futures Trading Begins appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Grain Basis Gets Stronger
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 204 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast! In the first part of the podcast we talk about the US and macro markets. S&P 500 corporate earnings have been better than expected but the recent slow down in retail has the market concerned about growth over the next six to twelve months. The Fed has confirmed the US economy is expanding but the recent weak manufacturing data means we could have a slowdown right around the corner. One the bright side the US and China are reportedly working on Phase One of the trade deal. We then switch over the corn, soybeans, hogs, cattle and sugar. We think corn… [Read More...]
GlaxoSmithKline Nigeria – initial thoughts
GSK NigeriaAbstracts and thoughts based on previous four annual reports and some news articles:Revenue Growth between 2006 – 2010 at 12-14% rate2010 Turnover up 13% PAT up 45%, PE Ratio 10 -122011 Turnover up 28% PAT up 16% PE Ratio 1015 new products were launched in 2011 ! This is a great innovation metric used by 3M and Google. It quantifies an otherwise black art of innovation estimation.3M mandates that 35% of the revenues should come from products launched in the past four years. The company stands out distinctly with its assorted collection of knick knacks.GSK stood out in the past decade on this score. Some organisations call it “vitality index” or “innovation index”, measured as new product revenues dividedby total revenues. New product in Silicon Valley may be 9 months, 3 years… [Read More...]
The Perils of Past Performance, Part 1
In November, legendary equity investor Bill Miller stood down as portfolio manager of the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust, after underperforming in four of the past five years. Does this mean Miller had lost his touch? [Read More...]
The Yieldless Society
Central banks worldwide – with the Fed and the ECB at the forefront – are on the brink of implementing their historically rapid policy reversal, yet interest rates are already setting new records on a daily basis. And there’s not much chance of this changing any time soon. To make things tangible: The German 10-year rate has dropped to almost -0.40%. That means that the foundation upon which almost all rates in the Eurozone are based, is negative. In Japan, where the 10-year rate is at -0.16%, the same applies. In Switzerland the yield curve only offers you negative yields, hence everywhere between a maturity of 3 months and 50 years. Bare bones For those looking to earn even a little bit more, risk-taking is the name… [Read More...]
COT: Commodities sold on rising trade tensions — #SaxoStrats
Hedge funds cut bullish commodities bets for a third week as trade tensions continued to take their toll on sentiment across most sectors. [Read More...]
Squawk: European averages join US indices with bullish extensions In yesterday’s…
European averages join US indices with bullish extensions In yesterday’s report here we highlighted that the main US equity indices have produced aggressive rallies back higher this week with both… [Read More...]
The Swine Times 10/16 Trade Rec
Hello Hog Traders We feel bellies are approaching highs with the back to back 2.7 million head slaughters in consecutive weeks. Combined with seasonality, we feel the markets are at a level that should be sold. We are looking at selling 1 unit of December futures outright. If you are nervous, look to buy a cheap Dec put option a nickel or so higher. Our plan is to eventually buy the G (feb futures back) if prices fall and spread out. We think December futures are likely near a seasonal high, the cutout looks to be there as well. SELL 1 UNIT OF DECEMBER HOGS This should be your only position. Subscribe to The Swine Times The Swine Times – The Swine Times newsletter is designed to help participants in… [Read More...]
Diversification in the age of rising stock/bond correlations
In a well-diversified portfolio, as one asset class declines, another should rise, mitigating risk and minimizing losses. Yet that is proving to be easier said than done. As fixed income and equity markets seem to have shifted to risk-off, investors are struggling to find assets that move in the opposite direction from other assets, leaving portfolios exposed to synchronized losses even if they are diversified. Specifically, the recent performance of stocks and bonds have been moving in the same direction: down. So how to achieve better diversification in times like these? In our view, bonds are still a reliable diversifier in a market rotation, especially as we get late in the business cycle. Better balancing risk exposure in a bond portfolio is critical to realizing … [Read More...]
Top Brands in Nigeria
Annual ranking of brands on the lines of Deliotte Fast 50, or Superbrands India is undertaken by top50brandsnigeria.com. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6ddpOiqN5eqdk8tZ3p6WWZFX1k/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6ddpOiqN5eqUkpYRUhTeXByYkU/view?usp=sharingFeeling like I’ve never been this lucky before since 2009, to have found three back to back bear markets. Generally staying in a single market takes 7-8 years of patience to find the next bull market eg: 1992, 2000, 2007, 2014 in India. But global investing opens the vistas for more frequent bear markets. Second opportunity afforded is going back to 1970s in 2014. Disclosure: Vested interest in positions discussed. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. I am not an investment adviser. Investment in … [Read More...]
Jefferson County Bankruptcy Is Unique
Yesterday, Jefferson County, Alabama filed for bankruptcy—a move we had long anticipated. The County’s $4.2 billion in debt makes this the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history. [Read More...]
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