Predicting Market Turns with Price Action If you watch market action closely you will pick up on a reliable market pattern. Strangely enough it is almost totally independent of the time frames you use. It does not matter if you are using 1 minute 15 minute, one hour, daily or even weekly time frames. Watch this video or any of your charts on any stock, ETF, or index and research this for yourself. You will find that the market reverses itself after runs of 3-4-5 or 6 consecutive trends. Technically this is called the Reversion to the Mean. After a short run like this it seems to just run out of gas. 3-6 bars from William F. McCready on Vimeo. .dpsp-networks-btns-wrapper.dpsp-networks-btns-content {margin-bottom:20px !important} … [Read More...]
Finding Fashion in Asian Small Caps
Investors looking for the kind of growth that up-and-coming smaller companies can deliver can’t afford to ignore Asia. We see exciting niche opportunities there—but finding them requires patience and on-the-ground expertise. [Read More...]
Keeping Your Balance During Shaky Markets
While capital markets have had their ups and downs, it’s been at least 15 years since we’ve seen such a broad swathe of the global markets take a hit at the same time—risky and “risk-free” assets alike. [Read More...]
Earnings Season Trading
How to trade Options and Futures During Earnings Season Earnings season is up on us again at the end of the quarter. First of all you will need to know what, when and how much the expected stock of your dreams is expected to move. You find this quite handily by going to Yahoo finance to find the date earning come out for your stock. You can highlight the stock to send you alerts if you like. We dot recommend placing order before earnings because the market makers tend to jack up the prices as the Implied Volatility (IV) rises. Rather we suggest you wait until after earnings are announced and if you are not sure of the direction of the stock movement, place either a straddle … [Read More...]
Investing for Impact: A Brief Guide for the Perplexed
Discussions about investment strategies that take values or ethical principles into account can be confusing. Several different terms are used, often interchangeably; in fact, they may be converging. Here’s a brief guide that highlights a few key issues. [Read More...]
Futures Day Trading for Beginners
Every year, legions of aspiring traders enter the futures markets hoping to make a living buying and selling contracts. The upsides are obvious: financial and personal freedom. Unfortunately, the number of losing traders far exceeds the tally of winners. Be forewarned: The path to becoming a winning trader can be long and treacherous. Nonetheless, if you’re interested in a career in the markets, then a few lessons on day trading for beginners can help you avoid hidden pitfalls and even financial catastrophe. Lesson 1: The Personal Inventory The old axiom “Know thyself” is especially relevant in futures trading. Before ever placing a market order, it is imperative that you have a good idea of your strengths and weaknesses. Understanding your competencies in several key areas is useful in … [Read More...]
Working Past 66: The Impact on Social Security Benefits
A reader of my recent article on when to take Social Security benefits asked whether my analysis would change if a person does not retire at age 66 and plans to work until age 70—and is earning more now than he expects to earn at retirement. That’s a good question. [Read More...]
10 Options Trading Rules That Must Be Followed
Despite the COVID-19 backdrop, some individual stocks and broader indices have exploded to new all-time highs and retraced previous all-time highs, respectively. Since the depths of the COVID-19 induced sell-off in late March, the markets have experienced an uninterrupted resurgence. It’s easy to become complacent when markets are roaring higher. However, one must remain disciplined […] The post 10 Options Trading Rules That Must Be Followed appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Crash Month is Near: Late September and early October have hietorically had large market crashes. Remember 1987. I am trading short most of this…
The post Crash Month is Near: Late September and early October have hietorically had large market crashes. Remember 1987. I am trading short most of this month to guard against large quick drops. appeared first on Futures Blog by Bill McCready. [Read More...]
Bullish TAS Vega Signaling Continued Rally in Equity Futures
We’ve been monitoring continued volatility this week in the equity markets to end the month of June. Uncertainty remains with the virus and if it will continue to shutdown/postpone further re-openings to the US economy. Yesterday afternoon, bulls were able to shake this off and rally higher. I’m seeing a similar technical setup now. With TAS Vega indicating further bullish momentum and TAS Navigator/Ratio flipping to bullish in my 30MIN chart below, I want to buy the ES. I recommend the following. Call me if you need assistance with executing this trade! BUY ESU20 @ 3065.00 or @ Market SELL STOP @ 3050.00 ($750 risk per contract) SELL LIMIT @ 3090.00 ($1,250 profit per contract) The MICRO contract is 1/10th exposure per contract. *Risk/reward … [Read More...]
The loonie’s new lower normal
The principal drivers of the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate are changes in oil prices, changes in the difference between short-term U.S. and Canadian interest rates and stock market volatility (a proxy for risk appetites). Over the past ten years, oil price declines, shrinking premiums on short-term Canadian interest rates over U.S. ones, and rising stock market volatility have all tended to coincide with Canadian dollar weakness (see chart below). The reverse is also true. Almost as soon as 2020 began, the Canadian dollar started its descent. Falling oil prices were the principal driver of the loonie’s initial weakness in January and February. By March, stocks and heightened risk aversion joined up with an oil price rout that deepened into April, leaving … [Read More...]
In EM, Beware Commodity Riches Without Policy Smarts
Fixed-income investors often divide emerging markets into commodity exporters and commodity importers. We think this overlooks an important reality: commodity wealth is not the sole—or even the most important—driver of EM performance. [Read More...]
Bullish Momentum Closes out Q2 with the S&P 500 Moving Higher
Equity futures continued their rally this afternoon which resulted in the S&P 500 closing out its best quarter since Q4 of 1998. This morning I recommended clients to BUY ESU20 @ 3065.00 on bullish momentum I was seeing from the TAS indicators presented in my chart below. We saw some retracement when Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin testified before Congress but equities continued today’s rally higher this afternoon. The front-month ES made a high of 3101.25 so my target was filled for a profit @ 3090.00 ($1,250 profit per contract). Great job to all who participated in this trade with me! Feel free to give me a call about your position or to review this trade together! Trade Recap: BOUGHT ESU20 @ 3065.00 SOLD ESU20 @ 3090.00 … [Read More...]
An Odd Decoupling in the US Private Service Sector
First-quarter US economic growth data were revised downward today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), based on new information suggesting a slower pace of consumer spending on services. The change draws attention to an anomaly between strong private service sector job growth and weak private service sector output. [Read More...]
5 charts
Regime shift US stocks have outperformed their global and emerging counterparts by a mile in the last ten years. But this hasn’t always been the case. For example, in the decade prior to that, the S&P 500 Index realized a negative return while emerging markets skyrocketed 188%. So what about the ten years to come? Given the lofty valuation of US stocks, the CAPE being above 30, stock markets outside the US may well outperform. That said, the performance gap between US and the rest of the world can partly be explained by the US being home to a number of technology firms that have reshaped many aspects of daily life. This is not something that will shift overnight. Is the manufacturing glass half full or half empty? … [Read More...]
Five Ways to Keep Out of the Bond Liquidity Trap
Bond investors are used to managing interest-rate risk and credit risk. But the financial crisis should have taught us that there are times when liquidity risk can be just as important to manage. Now is one of those times. [Read More...]
History and Policy Point to Renminbi Rally
Many investors are worried about the future path of the Chinese currency after its sharp depreciation earlier this year. Based on fundamentals and the expectation that China will stick to its foreign-exchange policy, we think the currency has reached a fork in the road and is likely to rally. [Read More...]
Israel’s Bid To Legalize Recreational Cannabis
Israel just took an important step to make it the next country to legalize recreational cannabis. If this happens, two young cannabis stocks could surge. A bill to legalize recreational cannabis in Israel passed a critical test after being approved by the Ministerial Committee for Legislation. According to The Times of Israel, this bill would […] The post Israel's Bid To Legalize Recreational Cannabis appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Wide Moat Investing in a Leaky Boat market
I wrote six months back (March 2014) at http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2014/03/replicate-and-imitate.htmlthat “I missed Nigeria (A mistake I hope to fix in coming weeks and months).” I’ve not been smart enough and yet to correct that blunder.7UP Bottling (Pepsi Cola) at the time was 70 Nigerian Naira, in six months since then the latest price of 7UP is 162, these are high quality ideas where one can bet 10% of a large fund portfolio. In Calender 2014 the company has appreciated 128% as of date.Buffett, “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks” In this case the ‘chronically leaking boat’ for me is absence of … [Read More...]
What’s the Safest Investment Strategy?
Many investors with little appetite for risk think cash is the safest asset class. After all, if you have no investments, you have no investment risk. That’s true enough, but it’s reassuring only if you ignore inflation and taxes. And of course, most individuals do pay taxes and everyone experiences inflation. [Read More...]
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