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Daily Market Review – 2.1.2019

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Asia The Caixin index this morning confirms what we already knew – the Chinese manufacturing sector is contracting. Asian equities are on the way down, reflecting already red US index futures. Following the news from China, the Australian dollar is at a 2-year low. Europe Europe wakes up to a new year today with manufacturing PMIs rolling in. So far, we have a slowdown in Ireland, ahead of Brexit talks that will decide the future of the border between north and south. Still healthily expanding at 54.5 in December, the Irish economy was Europe’s top performer last year for the 5th time in a row. US The dollar is at a 4-month low as the US government opens the year – closed. The 10-day shutdown sees no signs … [Read More...]

Euro Nears Breaking Point

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It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable. There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in … [Read More...]

RBA Meeting Preview

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The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tonight and new central bank governor is at the helm.  Phillip Lowe, former RBA deputy governor succeeded Glenn Stevens and investors will be paying close attention to the new governor’s tone. Chances are he is going to play it safe and maintain the central bank’s upbeat outlook.  The last time they convened they expressed confidence in the trend of growth and labor market.  When Lowe spoke last month, he said the labor market is not as strong as the unemployment rate suggests and inflation is expected to remain low for some time. Taking a look at the table below, there has been as much improvement as deterioration in Australia’s economy since the last monetary policy meeting with broad improvements in China.  … [Read More...]

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