USDJPY Breaking To Higher Ground by Stephen Pope Dollar bulls are in full cry there are positive background noises The strength of the Dollar will continue even if the Fed are on hold There is no… [Read More...]
Open thread Dec. 6, 2019
Squawk: Jackson Hole speech by Fed’s Powell. The initial focus seems…
Jackson Hole speech by Fed’s Powell. The initial focus seems to be on Powell’s comment that there no signs of inflation pickup accelerating now that it has risen above 2% and there are no signs of… [Read More...]
The End Of The Harris Candidacy
The End Of The Harris Candidacy I should probably not waste time on this, but I was a fan of Kamala Harris. Her ending her candidacy while still in fifth place in the polls and if in a long slide, has me disappointed. As it is, given her declining polls, lack of money, and reportedly […] [Read More...]
Squawk: GBPUSD and FTSE 100 views with UK Employment report in…
GBPUSD and FTSE 100 views with UK Employment report in focus As global equity markets have stabilised from the end of last week after their recent aggressive selloffs the focus returns to the data… [Read More...]
Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession)
Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession) Four years ago, I decided to use my set of “long leading indicators” to forecast the 2016 election. The indicators were very weakly positive, and pointed to a narrow popular vote win for the incumbent party one year out. This prompted Nate […] [Read More...]
Some observations on tactical voting in the forthcoming General Election
The first and most obvious is this. If you say you are a Remainer, or if you understand the nightmare that No Deal will create, or want to end the threat to democracy this government is, you haveto vote tactically. The converse is also true. If you don’t vote tactically, you by your actions are supporting a No Deal Brexit. You will be partly responsible for a No Deal Brexit. If you want a Brexit that does not involve crashing out, you might tell yourself that the only way of getting a good deal is to keep No Deal on the table. But it is obvious by now that Johnson has no intention of even trying to get a deal, because he knows the EU will not … [Read More...]
Macro Monday week 35: Less equals more
In this webcast Saxo’s global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen examines the big issues for the week and looks for potential market moves. [Read More...]
The Case for Carbon Taxes, Part II: Political Sustainability
by Eric Kramer The Case for Carbon Taxes, Part II: Political Sustainability In a prior post, I argued that carbon taxes are not vulnerable to political subversion by hostile courts and regulators, and that this is an important advantage of carbon taxes over traditional regulation based on mandates, and also an advantage over subsidies. Once […] [Read More...]
Corbyn and Antisemitism
There is no doubt that the Labour party has an antisemitism problem. But the figures (see below) suggest it involves a tiny minority. Claims that the party is “riddled with antisemitism” are a deliberate lie. What makes antisemitism claims against Labour powerful is that they are associated with Jeremy Corbyn. In particular many have suggested that Corbyn himself is antisemitic. And if you present the evidence is a certain way the claim looks like a strong one. I am no Corbyn fan, and actively campaigned against him in 2016. My problem with him was not antisemitism, but Brexit, and my fears came to pass this summer. But I could see immediately that there was something odd about the evidence produced to suggest Corbyn was antisemitic. With a couple … [Read More...]
Squawk: Short USDCAD at 1.3227. Stop loss at 1.3250 (although I…
Short USDCAD at 1.3227. Stop loss at 1.3250 (although I may close before there or move my SL to breakeven). [Read More...]
The New Pharmacy Price Transparency Rule Put Forth by President Trump
“The New Hospital Price Disclosure Rule Is Important, But Only A First Step,” Health Affairs, James C. Capretta, August 26, 2019 The new proposed regulation on hospital price transparency is an important step toward consumer-friendly price information. The regulation introduces into federal price transparency, requirements such as the concepts: of service standardization, consumer-friendly organization and […] [Read More...]
Some thoughts on Labour’s campaign
The importance of this election cannot be overstated. Voters have a choice between re-electing a government that since 2010 has done untold damage to this country and which will be led by someone totally unsuited to be Prime Minister, or giving a minority Labour government a chance to do better for a few years. The fact that the polls suggest the public want more of the same illustrates how close we are to becoming an authoritarian, populist (in the Jan-Werner Müller sense) right wing state where it becomes very difficult for any opposition to break through.This post looks at some key aspects of Labour’s campaign so far, in I hope a helpful fashion. Tax and spend One of the dangers Labour faces is that they … [Read More...]
Whack ’em and stack ’em.
SOURCE: Funny Economist – Randall Parker’s Completely Serious Macroeconomics Blog – Read entire story here.
Squawk: A Parliament Of Preening Pharisees Can Scupper Sterling by Stephen…
A Parliament Of Preening Pharisees Can Scupper Sterling by Stephen Pope EURGBP slipped across the board on Friday and hit 3-day lows There is every prospect that PM May’s deal will be defeated on… [Read More...]
What’s behind the subprime consumer loan implosion
Via Naked Capitalism comes an explanation of what income inequality looks like in the US. It stands in contrast to the Bloomberg article pointed to by Yves in her introduction. I pulled the quotes with a non-economic person in mind. THE WOLF STREET REPORT transcript of podcast by Wolf Richter. Subprime doesn’t mean poor […] [Read More...]
How the Brexiters have controlled the narrative around Brexit
“Senior allies of Boris Johnson have warned that Britain will face civil unrest on the scale of the gilets jaunes protests in France or the riots in Los Angeles if Brexit is frustrated.” So reportsthe Times. A well known far right activist sayson TV that he is amazed that there have not been riots yet, and also says there should be. In truth the absence of riots is not amazing at all. Let us leave aside the implication that when Leavers protest it will be a riot rather than a peaceful protest. If you are talking about people protesting or worse on the streets you are not talking about Vox Pops where people tell an interviewer that they are angry parliament has failed to get on … [Read More...]
Open thread Dec. 3, 2019
Brexit is a denial of economics as knowledge
A well known Brexiters said it was almost worth doing Brexit because of the anger I feel about it. He is right about the anger. The prospect of Brexit has filled me with the same horror as austerity did. The connection between the two is obvious. Both involve subjecting the whole country to a policy that basic economic ideas tell you will do nearly everyone harm. We have seen nothing like this in my lifetime. The only person to try austerity (by which I mean fiscal consolidation in a recession) was Thatcher, and the policy was reversed (not stopped, but the consolidation was undone) within two years. Every government, and especially Thatchers, has pursued regulatory harmonisation and tariff reductions to increase trade. Now in just one decade … [Read More...]
The Current State of the U.S. Dairy Industry
The Current State of the U.S. Dairy Industry I had to endure a discussion of the plight of American dairy farmers where Trump’s trade policies were somehow to blame. Stephanie Mercier confirmed some of the facts: According to data reported by the National Farmers Union (NFU), the average dairy farm has shown a positive net income only […] [Read More...]
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