The Nasdaq has been leading indices throughout 2020, even the sell-off caused by Covid19 was not as bad as was inflicted on the Russell 2000 or S&P. The latest gains are challenging the most recent swing high which was marked by a “gravestone doji” in addition to building on the break of 10,000. On-Balance-Volume is leading the indicators with a strong accumulation trend.
The S&P is rallying off its 50-day MA, albeit on low volume, although On-Balance-Volume is trending higher in line with net accumulation. Other technicals are looking to improve with a fresh ‘buy’ trigger in +DI/-DI and relative performance gain vs Small Caps.
Small Caps was again struggling to get past its 200-day MA with small losses on the day. As with other indices it has to contend with a MACD trigger ‘sell’, offset by an accumulation trend in On-Balance-Volume. As it continues to underperform both the Nasdaq and S&P it remains a sign that the broader Covid19 rally for the indices is in need of some rest and probable downside.
Which side of the market will win? Stealth buyers driving the accumulation trend in On-Balance-Volume or the flaky momentum traders heading to the exits on the back of their MACD ‘sell’ triggers. Things have got a little quiet for June but this could change at any time. So far, there haven’t been the market losses for which to blame Covid19 despite the increase in infections and mortality, but it feels like it’s only a matter of time before it overwhelms the country again.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
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SOURCE: Fallon Financial Commentary – Read entire story here.