Davos Diverts Attention From BoC and Earnings It’s a mixed bag across Europe on Wednesday, with much of the headlines coming from Davos where Trump delivered his keynote speech yesterday. Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon It’s always interesting to hear the views of some of the world’s most influential people at these events but so far, as many expected, it’s having little impact on the markets. It was interesting to hear the President once again blaming the Fed for the slower economy and Dow not being another 10,000 points higher, something I expect we’ll hear repeated over and over again this year. Fear around the spread of coronavirus is not yet having any real impact on markets outside of China but with reports … [Read More...]

A very busy week in Davos was kicked off by President Trump’s opening remarks that reiterated his “America First” motto, while making some positive strokes to this year’s overall green theme. President Trump’s impeachment is also beginning today in what will likely deliver a ton of headlines but yield little impact as markets remain fairly confident the President will be acquitted of all charges. Risk appetite saw some early weakness stem from bad news in Asia that saw the coronavirus spread in Wuhan.  Officials in China have reported six people have died from the virus and almost 300 have been infected.  The initial selloff however was just another buying opportunity as optimism remains that China will contain the spread and you don’t want to fight the Fed. US … [Read More...]

Davos and Earnings in Focus It’s been a slow start to an otherwise frenetic week, with the bank holiday in the US only adding to the light volumes and absent news flow. Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon This comes following a rather eventful start to the year, since which markets have largely stabilized. The signing of the phase one trade deal will allow investors to turn their attention elsewhere and this week that place will be the mountains, more specifically, Davos. The World Economic Forum gets underway tomorrow which means lots of panel discussions, meetings and interviews for traders to get their teeth stuck into. Given the current environment, it may not be the most market impactful event that we’ll see but when it comes … [Read More...]

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins Cory Fleck to discuss the US equity markets and how recent data and general central bank policy could support a continued rise. There is no arguing that the current rally in US markets is due for a pullback however it could go one for a little while longer, being supported by recent news events. Ed Moya on The Korelin Economics Report [Read More...]

Gold futures gave up earlier gains to turn lower on Thursday, as some upbeat U.S. economic data dulled haven demand for the precious metal. Prices also declined on the back of further gains in U.S. benchmark stock indexes, which followed the completion Wednesday of the first stage in a trade pact between the U.S. and China. “Gold prices gave up their earlier gains following a wrath of positive US economic data,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a market update. “This week has not been good for macro-economic traders looking to make a bullish case for gold prices.” The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of business activity in its region surged in January. New jobless claims fell … [Read More...]

One of Princes’ darkest songs but one of my favourites may have been running through China Vice Premier Liu He’s mind last night, as he signed the long-awaited phase-one trade deal on behalf of China, with the United States. The details, of course, are now widely disseminated and on the face of it, appear to be a one-nil win for the Americans. Apart from having to basically buy everything that America grows, makes or digs out of the ground, China has had to make some serious concessions on opening its financial markets to American companies and IP protection. Adding insult to injury, the tariffs on Chinese goods will remain to ensure compliance and that the “phase-two” talks commence at pace and … [Read More...]

Gold prices on Tuesday headed lower, on the verge of notching a second straight decline, as upbeat reports from some of the U.S.’s largest banks, muted signs of inflation and continued progress toward a Sino-American trade pact failed to spur demand for haven-related assets. “Gold prices are getting dragged down as trade tensions have eased in the short-term and as US earnings season gets off to a great start,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a Tuesday research note. “The banks are painting a picture that the US consumer remains strong and that should support fresh record highs with US stocks,” he said. At least that is the case with the U.S.’s biggest bank, … [Read More...]

And as quickly as it began, the latest Middle East crisis was over it appears. President Trump announced that no further action was to be forthcoming from the United States as Iran’s missiles caused no casualties in yesterdays attack. Iran, for its part, said yesterday that it was effectively “one and done.” And just like that, the next Middle East crisis had gone in 60 seconds, faster than a stolen Ford Mustang Shelby GT500 over the horizon. The massive rotation into haven positioning yesterday had already started to run out of steam in the European morning, such is the attention span and the complacency of financial markets these days. The logic being that if the United States didn’t immediately push a button, triggering an … [Read More...]

The return of Japan from an extended New Year’s break and the effective start of the New Year for the rest of the world’s markets has been a  busy one this morning. Haven assets remain solidly in demand across the board in the Asian morning. Equities have sunk, gold and oil have rallied, Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs are higher, as are US Treasuries. The driver, of course, is relations between Iran and the US following Friday’s assassination of the Iranian Quds Commander in Bagdad. Things have not got quieter over the weekend, with President Trump tweeting that 52 targets in Iran are locked and loaded for destruction if Iran retaliates. Iran itself has announced it will remove all limits on uranium enrichment with numerous … [Read More...]

  Iranian militia leaders killed Reports that US airstrikes may have killed a senior Iranian commander saw crude oil prices surge in Asian trading this morning. In a knee-jerk reaction, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices jumped almost 4% to reach the highest level since April 30, amid concerns about supply disruptions. The jump was the biggest since September 16, the day of the attacks on Saudi Arabian processing facilities. In response, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer said that Iran would take “revenge” on the US for the deaths. The 55-day moving average has moved above the 200-day moving average at $57.768 for the first time since September 12. The May 2019 high is at $63.792.   WTI Daily Chart Source: OANDA fxTrade   Equities pressured, gold gains The reported attacks have taken… [Read More...]