OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the week’s business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart. On this week’s podcast, Jonny and Craig discuss next week’s UK election, the trade war, Fed and ECB next week and the decision by OPEC+ to deepen production cuts. [Read More...]

China’s Industrial Profits disappointed this morning, falling 2.90% YoY following an equally disappointing 2.10% fall last month. Digging into the numbers, state-owned industrial firms profits slumped a mammoth 12.10% while private firms industrial profits rose 5.30% across the 41 sectors surveyed. The monthly figure for October on its own, is even uglier, a drop of 9.90%, an eight-month low. It highlights that the US-Sino trade war is a two-way street from which China itself is not immune. That is despite the euphoria surrounding Alibaba’s successful secondary listing yesterday in Hong Kong, and China’s oversubscribed US dollar bond sale. China’s industrial heartland has been hurting from the global slowdown as well. For example, the industrial profits data shows that in the … [Read More...]

US stocks remain in a holding pattern as optimistic comments from China do little to assuage rising fears we will see a collapse in talks for the phase-one trade deal as President Trump is expected to sign legislation passed by Congress to support Hong Kong protesters.  China Vice Premier Liu He stated he is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about reaching Phase 1 deal with US but confused about some of the US demands.  S&P 500 futures rose to session highs after a Dow Jones report noted that last week, China sent an invitation for more talks to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer.  Markets seem to still be pricing in a Christmas Trade Miracle as the Hong Kong bill seems to be a major bump in the road … [Read More...]

That is probably how equity markets are feeling this morning as Wall Street eked out minuscule gains to extend record highs. Still, worryingly, the rest of the street seems to be jumping off the trade-deal/global recovery ship and into the lifeboats. Let’s start with central banks; the PBOC cut its 7-day repo rate yesterday by five bps, and China looks “primed” to shave a few basis points of its 1-year Loan Rate tomorrow, and possibly even its five-year equivalent. The RBA minutes released this morning highlighted that another possible rate cut last week had been a close-run thing, and also said slack in the labour market would “persist for years to come.” The world’s central banks are in … [Read More...]

President Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of New York was a highlight reel of his best lines.  Trump reiterated his criticism of the Fed, boasted about stock market gains under his watch and the strength of the labor market.  Trump highlighted the US is at a disadvantage on rates and repeated criticism over the Fed’s pace of race cuts.  On China, Trump delivered some harsh tones that China cheated America on trade, but quickly blamed prior US leaders for allowing it to happen.  Regarding the trade war, Trump echoed, “they are dying to make a deal.”  He maintained his optimistic stance that a ‘significant’ Phase-One trade deal with China could happen soon.  US stocks remained off their session highs as Trump’s prepared statement provided … [Read More...]