Discussions about investment strategies that take values or ethical principles into account can be confusing. Several different terms are used, often interchangeably; in fact, they may be converging. Here’s a brief guide that highlights a few key issues. [Read More...]
Squawk: FTSE 100 stays firm aided by a weakened Pound In…
FTSE 100 stays firm aided by a weakened Pound In our report here yesterday (Wednesday 14th February) we highlighted downside risks for the Pound into another Brexit vote with a technical trigger… [Read More...]
The far-reaching effects of central bank policy
The impact of central banks should not be underestimated. And I don’t just mean their impact on economic growth and interest rates. Central banks are also a driving force of financial markets. As the chart above shows, the size of G4 (US, Eurozone, UK and Japan) central bank balance sheet as a % of GDP has risen relentlessly over the last 20 years, and global equities have more or less followed suit. The correlation has become even tighter since the financial crisis – a period that, not by coincidence, has seen unprecedented stimulatory monetary policy. In the last 20 years, only two major equity rallies have not been accompanied by significant increases in global central bank liquidity: the internet bubble (2000-2001) and the housing bubble (2006-2008). Surely… [Read More...]
The Perils of Past Performance, Part 1
In November, legendary equity investor Bill Miller stood down as portfolio manager of the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust, after underperforming in four of the past five years. Does this mean Miller had lost his touch? [Read More...]
COT: Record IMM EUR long despite being range-bound for months
In the week to April 17 the speculative dollar short against nine IMM currency futures continued to climb and reached $29 billion the highest since early 2011. The change was driven by EUR GBP and NZD buying with the net IMM EUR long climbing to a fresh record despite EURUSD having been range bound since January. [Read More...]
Predicting Death to Find Life in Emerging Market Stocks
Over the past year, investors have become excessively cautious about emerging markets. To compensate for the additional uncertainty, many underestimate the upside potential. Paradoxically, to get a better handle on the risks, we believe they should assume the worst. By using this “pre-mortem” approach, not only do they have a better chance of avoiding disaster, but they can also more accurately quantify the rewards. [Read More...]
Squawk: Macroeconomic Update by Gavin Pannu PM May struck a defiant…
Macroeconomic Update by Gavin Pannu PM May struck a defiant tone over weekend. 42 Tory MPs provide letter of no confidence PM May is set to head to Brussels to secure the deal Earning season comes to… [Read More...]
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Hello everyone I`m a professional essay writer on https://samedayessays.net/ I specialized in economic sphere writing. I`m open for your apply in case you need essay for school college or… [Read More...]
Growth Is Becoming More Valuable
Precious gems, Old Masters artwork and certain brands of scotch: scarcity makes them more desirable and adds to their value. The same can be said of organic growth. As the economic cycle matures, we expect the stocks of companies that have it—and can maintain it—to become increasingly prized. [Read More...]
The Perils of Past Performance, Part 2
Last month, I wrote that even great investors are very likely to underperform in one of the next three-years periods. Here’s some historical evidence that even champs can sometimes look like chumps. [Read More...]
Euphoria and Reality in European Stocks
Euro-area stock markets have rebounded as the ECB has launched its QE program. In our view, investors should take a pragmatic approach that aims to capture the gains—but with eyes wide open to reality. [Read More...]
Squawk: US equity indices question the immediate bull trend A rally…
US equity indices question the immediate bull trend A rally and then a plunge back lower on Wednesday for the major US equity averages after the FOMC rate decision statement and conference. The… [Read More...]
Earnings growth is not a prerequisite for higher equity prices
With global growth leveling off, investors are more focused than ever on corporate results. These reveal a less rosy picture than in previous years and company expectations are very muted. The good news, however, is that lower earnings growth isn’t necessarily a problem for the stock markets, provided the decline is temporary. Comparison In many ways the current period is comparable to 2015-2016, when the global economy cooled and, as we’re seeing now, investors watched the Federal Reserve and China with bated breath. Earnings per share stalled, even falling into negative territory from the third quarter of 2015, and didn’t start to move higher again until the end of 2016. In the meantime, however, both the Fed and the Chinese government stepped on the gas and thus prevented… [Read More...]
Are Stocks Topping Out?
With global equity market returns of well over 100% since the bottom hit in March 2009 (Display) and the S&P 500 only modestly below the record it set a few weeks ago, some investors are asking if stocks are heading for a fall. We think any number of things could cause a short-term rollback—among them, the political stalemate in Washington—but the market isn’t overpriced. [Read More...]