Got the chance to appear on CNBC World Wide Exchange with Sara Eisen this morning talking about my Targets for GBP, USD/JPY and comments on EURO Watch Now. Lots of Good Stuff. [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Currencies, Wheat, Notes
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on Friday, February 12, 2021. Open Positions Short the May 2021 Chicago Wheat at 646’6 (2/03/21). Market settled at 641’2. Marked-to-market gain of $275. Long the March 2021 Ten-Year Notes on 137-00 (2/11/21). Market settled at 136-175. Marked-to-Market loss of $453.27. Working Orders Buy stop for the Chicago Wheat contract on 663’0, above recent session highs, GTC. (Remaining Risk: $812.50, plus including commission and fees) Buy limit for the Chicago Wheat contract on 571’0, near the 200-day Moving Average, GTC. (Reward: $3,787.50, minus commission and fees) Sell stop for the Ten-Year Notes contract on 136-120, below the number three point, GTC. (Initial Risk: $650.20, plus including commission and fees) Sell… [Read More...]
Here’s How to Trade the Sept ECB Rate Decision
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement is the most important event risk on the calendar this week. Aside from the rate decision, the central bank also releases its latest economic projections which helps to shape future policy plans. ECB President Draghi is expected to remind investors that inflation is low, the economy is weak and easier monetary policy may be needed. Consumer spending has been particularly soft, manufacturing and trade activity took a hit after Brexit and most importantly, inflation remains well below target with year over year core CPI growth slipping to 0.8% from 0.9% in August. However there have also been areas of improvement namely in business confidence, German spending and German stocks. Some are hoping for more QE but at most we expect … [Read More...]
S&P 500 Decouples from Euro?
While I have written quite about forex correlations in recent posts, the focus has primarily been on correlations that exist between currencies. In this post, I would like to address a correlation that exists between currencies and other forex markets- specifically the relationship between the Euro and US stocks. If you look at the chart above, you can see that an unmistakable correlation exists between the S&P500 and the EUR/USD that stretches back at least six months. Generally speaking, when the EURUSD has risen, so has the S&P 500, and vice versa. In fact, this correlation is so airtight that one analyst recently discovered that the two financial vehicles often reach intra-day highs and lows within minutes of one another! Why is this the … [Read More...]
Euro Nears Breaking Point
It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable. There have been several factors at work in this latest episode. On Monday, S&P downgraded its credit rating for Greece to CCC, following on a similar move by Moody’s. That means that Greece’s sovereign credit rating is now the lowest in … [Read More...]