Investors in US dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging-market (EM) corporates are worried that the greenback’s rise, together with a broad decline in EM currencies, could increase the risk of defaults on their holdings. How worried should they be? [Read More...]
What to Think About in a Bond-Market Reboot
US interest rates are likely to head up gradually over the next several years, now that the long tailwind from a three-decade-long rate decline has subsided. With bonds still an important part of many portfolios, what should investors be thinking about? [Read More...]
EM Sovereign Debt 2014: Neither Phoenix nor Failure
Emerging-market (EM) sovereign bonds were burned badly in 2013. Will they rise from the ashes in 2014? We believe some will and some won’t. The watchword for 2014 will be selectivity. [Read More...]
The Core of the Modern Bond Strategy: Go Global
“Keep Calm and Carry On” reads a popular World War II–era British motivational poster. We think the first half of the slogan is good advice for bond investors in today’s uncertain markets, but we’d substitute the second with “Go Global.” [Read More...]
Seven Lessons Every Fixed-Income Investor Should Learn from 2013
After more than two decades of a fixed-income bull market, 2013 was not a great year for the bond market. Rates bottomed out, many mutual funds had negative returns and bond mutual funds experienced a record $80 billion in redemptions as investors hit the panic button. But it would be foolhardy to assume that 2014 will be a repeat year for fixed income. Rather, the bond market has become more complex and will likely reward those who closely study what worked, what did not and why. [Read More...]
That’s So Overrated: How Credit Ratings Do Damage
Credit rating agencies are a capital-markets fixture; the ratings they assign to the debt of corporations and governments are widely used by investors as a standard measure of credit risk. But agency credit ratings aren’t perfect—and shouldn’t be a substitute for investors doing their own analysis. [Read More...]
Back to the Future: What Time Is It for Bonds?
Investors often ask us how they should think about bond markets in a time of rising yields. Are we facing a situation similar to 1994? Or worse, could it be like 1981, when five-year US Treasury yields soared to 15%? Our answer often surprises them: we don’t think it’s either. [Read More...]
Bond History: Rhyming, Not Repeating
When the Fed does eventually start raising interest rates, at AllianceBernstein we don’t expect to see bonds experiencing the dire scenarios of 1981 or 1994. Instead, the 2003–2006 period of slow and measured rate normalization seems more likely. But it’s not a perfect match, and we do see some important investment factors to consider. [Read More...]