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Thanksgiving Two Week Trial Member Special

January 23, 2021 by Corey Rosenbloom

If you’re new to Afraid to Trade or have been wanting to check us out, I wanted to extend an offer to come on in and see what we’re doing! Here’s your chance to step behind the public blog to a two-week trial of our membership site: I’ll also add a few bonus items for registering and joining us during your visit with us. Go ahead and register now – I won’t keep this offer on the open blog long. Take advantage of this special limited opportunity window! Corey [Read More...]

Saturday links: ignoring important truths

January 23, 2021 by abnormalreturns

AutosStephen Wilmot, “Delivery vehicles lend themselves to EV technology in ways passenger vehicles don’t.” (wsj.com)Microsoft ($MSFT) is investing in GM’s self-driving vehicle startup Cruise. (marketwatch.com)Despite some missteps VW trails only Tesla ($TSLA) in terms of EV and hybrid auto production. (wsj.com)EnergyOffshore wind installations require their own specialized support. (wsj.com)Oil and gas companies could become geothermal energy powerhouses. (qz.com)PFASsPFASs, or perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are present in the drinking water of most Americans. (scientificamerican.com)PFASs are present in a lot of the popular outdoor clothing lines. (gq.com)EnvironmentRegenerative farming is both an opportunity for farmers and the planet. (indystar.com)Bad things happen when underground aquifiers get depleted. (wired.com)How the pandemic is undermining sea-based weather monitoring. (hakaimagazine.com)How New Zealand … [Read More...]

Podcast links: how America invests

January 23, 2021 by abnormalreturns

EpisodesJosh Brown talks with Ryan Barrows of Vanguard about ‘How America Invests.’ (thereformedbroker.com)Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Corey Hoffstein about where quant goes from here. (bloomberg.com)Barry Ritholtz talks with Adam Karr, portfolio manager at Orbis Investments, about running an ‘unconstrained and concentrated fund.’ (ritholtz.com)Meb Faber talks multi-asset portfolios with Adrian Helfert of Westwood Group. (mebfaber.com)Tano Santos talks value investing with Mohnish Pabrai. (www8.gsb.columbia.edu)Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber recently spoke with Barry Ritholtz about pretty much everything including Bitcoin, Tesla and EVs. (ritholtz.com)Ted Seides talks with Frank Kinniry of Vanguard Group about its entry into private equity. (capitalallocatorspodcast.com)Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk MMT with Cullen Roche. (rationalreminder.ca)Howard Lindzon talks financial journalism with … [Read More...]

Friday links: the age of ETFs

January 22, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsThere are plenty of signs we are in a risk-on environment. (allstarcharts.com)How to measure investor sentiment using market prices. (capitalspectator.com)StrategyHypergrowth eventually ends. The stock market cares about how it ends. (theirrelevantinvestor.com)Drawdowns always look easier to handle on a chart than they are in real life. (compoundadvisors.com)CryptoHow to think about Bitcoin as a religion. (bloomberg.com)Five reasons why the SEC should approve a Bitcoin ETF. (bloomberg.com)MoviesThe fact that AMC Theaters ($AMC) hasn’t gone bankrupt yet is a minor miracle. (nytimes.com)Another wave of high profile movie delays is coming. (variety.com)Air travelCommercial air travel is way down in pandemic, but the private jet business is booming. (bloomberg.com)Everybody is just guessing about whether business travel will rebound post-pandemic. (wsj.com)SPACsSPACs generate … [Read More...]

Longform links: desire’s greatest trick

January 22, 2021 by abnormalreturns

Book excerptsAn excerpt from “The Plague Cycle: The Unending War Between Humanity and Infectious Disease” by Charles Kenny. (slate.com)An excerpt from “Beginners: The Curious Power of Lifelong Learning” by Tom Vanderbilt. (outsideonline.com)An excerpt from “This Is the Voice” by John Colapinto. (theguardian.com)Pandemic policyHow the U.S. set itself on path for failure during the pandemic. (nytimes.com)Operation Warp Speed was kind of working until it came to vaccine distribution. (politico.com)FoodLoss of sense of smell is a Covid side effect. What happens if you make your living by your nose? (wired.co.uk)A profile of chef Ángel León and his plan to save the sea. (time.com)Just how sustainable can Big Meat actually become? (ft.com)LongreadsHow Andreessen Horowitz transformed into a media company. (newcomer…. [Read More...]

Thursday links: historic bubbles

January 21, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsSome markets that are definitely not in a bubble, including financial stocks. (awealthofcommonsense.com)The reflation trade is helping commodities, including crude oil. (allstarcharts.com)RetailRetail traders are demanding more of every kind of asset, and suppliers are still catching up. (howardlindzon.com)IG Group is buying retail-focused online brokerage Tastytrade. (marketwatch.com)CryptoGrayscale ended 2020 with $20.2 billion in AUM which is 10x 2019. (investopedia.com)CompaniesFox essentially swapped a stake in Roku ($ROKU) for ownership in Tubi. (thestreamable.com)Neiman Marcus creditors are getting bailed out by the Mytheresa ($MYTE) IPO. (ft.com)ARK InvestDoes ARK Invest have a capacity problem? (barrons.com)It’s hard not to marvel at ARK Invest’s 2020. (institutionalinvestor.com)ETFsThematic ETFs are not launched at market bottoms. (msn.com)A third SPAC-focused ETF is coming to market. (wsj.com)FundsETFs saw inflows … [Read More...]

Wednesday links: monotonic returns

January 20, 2021 by abnormalreturns

Four yearsHow the Dow has performed during Presidential administrations. (thereformedbroker.com)What markets did over the past four years. (capitalspectator.com)Retail tradingThe new class of retail traders really are roiling the stock markets. (theirrelevantinvestor.com)This rally is being driven by unprofitable companies. (ft.com)Small trader are buying call options hand over fist. (sentimentrader.com)Market breadth is off the charts. (allstarcharts.com)StrategySome major secular trends have reversed of late. (compoundadvisors.com)Six stocks doth not a diversified portfolio make. (bloomberg.com)NetflixNetflix ($NFLX) now has more than 200 million global subscribers. (nytimes.com)Netflix ($NFLX) is now a consumer staple. (compoundadvisors.com)SPACsGoldman Sachs ($GS) is warning about the SPAC boom. (bloomberg.com)Former SPAC deal, Quantumscape ($QS) has no shortage of skeptics. (ft.com)Singapore wants to become a hub for SPACs. (ft.com)Electronic tradingThe … [Read More...]

Research links: proceeding with extreme caution

January 20, 2021 by abnormalreturns

RatesHow to interpret TIPS breakeven spreads. (econbrowser.com)Real interest rates can no longer be estimated on a country-by-country basis. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)Quant stuffMichael Harris, “Traders and investors should be very careful with charts involving claims that cannot be verified.” (priceactionlab.com)Institutional investors haven’t given up on quant yet. (institutionalinvestor.com)When should you consider throwing out your model? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com)Prof. Campbell Harvey named ‘2020 Quant of the Year’ by The Journal of Portfolio Management. (pm-research.com)ResarchWhy isn’t there more research on the impact of taxes on taxable investors? (aqr.com)Just how safe are stocks over the long run? (papers.ssrn.com)Do factors proxy for fundamental risks? (alphaarchitect.com)Some more on the overnight stock market returns effect. (systematicindividualinvestor.com)Private equity performance is neither reliable, … [Read More...]

Sunday links: the great reflation

January 17, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsThree big themes for the rest of the year including a mutating virus. (blog.yardeni.com)Why didn’t the financial markets react more to political violence? (theatlantic.com)StrategyHow to invest in a bubble. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Jeff Miller, “Successful investors are realists not ideologues.” (dashofinsight.com)A nice review for Joachim Klement’s book “Seven Mistakes Every Investor Makes (And How to Avoid Them).” (valueandopportunity.com)CryptoThe government of Iran is blaming Bitcoin miners for electrical blackouts. (washingtonpost.com)MediaApple ($AAPL) has finally decided to get into the premium podcast business. (markets.businessinsider.com)Medium has purchased e-book company Glose. (theverge.com)Issues about content moderation are going to spread from Twitter ($TWTR) and Facebook ($FB). (onezero.medium.com)Freakonomics Radio is opening up it archive and produce new shows. (axios.com)PeletonPeople who ordered … [Read More...]

Coronavirus links: good enough

January 17, 2021 by abnormalreturns

VariantsViruses mutate. So does the novel coronavirus. (theatlantic.com)The new variants increase the urgency to get people vaccinated. (statnews.com)We don’t really know if delaying second vaccinations would allow for greater virus mutation over time. (sciencemag.org)We need new diagnostic tests to identify the new variants. (statnews.com)Why you need to step up your vigilance with the new variants about. (vox.com)VaccinesJ&J ($JNJ) is nearing results of its Phase 3 vaccine trial and could make 1 billion doses. (barrons.com)Pfizer ($PFE) says its vaccine works against the new variants. (nytimes.com)The efficacy of just the first dose was not a focus of clinical trials. (wired.com)The Sinovac vaccine is less efficacious than previously thought. (cnbc.com)How much vaccine you can extract from the vial depends on the type … [Read More...]

Saturday links: a byproduct of good reading

January 16, 2021 by abnormalreturns

AutosAutomakers around the world are facing a shortage of chips. (theverge.com)Why fatality rates on U.S. roads rose last year. (wsj.com)Ferrari is getting dragged kicking and screaming into the SUV era. (nytimes.com)How to think about the new automotive industry. (asymco.com)BatteriesWe are going to need to start recycling batteries to help make more EVs. (axios.com)The next wave of EV adoption relies on better, cheaper batteries. (wsj.com)EnergyHow long before we stop thinking of energy and oil/gas as the same thing? (wsj.com)How small floating power stations could harness thermal energy in the ocean. (wired.com)There are dams already in place not generating power. Why not hook them up? (ft.com)Towns in the West are seeing surging revenues from wind projects while revenues … [Read More...]

Podcast links: tail-risk strategies

January 16, 2021 by abnormalreturns

The GoldmineIntroducing ‘The Goldmine’ a new audio feed where you can hear your favorite financial writers read their best content. (abnormalreturns.com)You can listen to latest episode by Ben Carlson ‘It’s OK To Build Wealth Slowly.’ (awealthofcommonsense.com)Portfolio managementBarry Ritholtz talks asset allocaton with Sébastien Page, head of T. Rowe Price’s $363.5 billion multi-asset division. (ritholtz.com)Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber talk with Scott Schoelzel, the former PM of the Janus Twenty Fund, about what it’s like to run a hot, high-flying fund. (bloomberg.com)Brandon Beylo talks with Lawrence Hamtil about six industries ESG investors love to hate. (macro-ops.com)EpisodesMeb Faber talks options, the VIX, and tail risk strategies with Kevin Davitt and John Hiatt from the CBOE. (mebfaber.com)Joe Weisenthal and Tracy … [Read More...]

Friday links: large-growth fortunes

January 15, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsThe S&P 500 is historically concentrated in its top 10 holdings. (fortunefinancialadvisors.com)A look at ‘super-strong’ breadth readings. (sentimentrader.com)Is the value trade just a big bet on the vaccine? (nytimes.com)CryptoAnything Bitcoin-related is seeing a surge in trading volume. (ft.com)AppleHow Apple ($AAPL) could improve Fitness+. (sixcolors.com)How much revenue does Apple ($AAPL) generate on Apple Pay? (asymco.com)Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs ($GS) is set to launch a Marcus-branded checking account. (bloomberg.com)Goldman could turn to deals to build up Marcus. (reuters.com)Venture capitalAmy Whyte, “By every measure, 2020 was a big year for venture capital — at least for the established players.” (institutionalinvestor.com)There is no shortage of signs of froth in venture capital. (protocol.com)Venture-backed firms have new options when it comes … [Read More...]

Longform links: feelings of powerlessness

January 15, 2021 by abnormalreturns

BooksAn excerpt from “Beginners: The Curious Power of Lifelong Learning” by Tom Vanderbilt. (theguardian.com)An excerpt from “Ask Your Developer: How to Harness the Power of Software Developers and Win in the 21st Century” by Jeff Lawson. (fastcompany.com)An excerpt from “How to Survive: Self-Reliance in Extreme Circumstances” by John Hudson, the British military’s chief survival instructor. (wired.com)An excerpt from “Bravey: Chasing Dreams, Befriending Pain, and Other Big Ideas” by Alexi Pappas. (theatlantic.com)CompaniesAlibaba ($BABA) trades at a discount due to political risk. (notboring.substack.com)Why Spotify ($SPOT) is betting big on podcasts. (bloomberg.com)Is Nike ($NKE) losing its cool? (ft.com)TechnologyWhy Austin, Texas won’t become Silicon Valley 2.0. (texasmonthly.com)What does Internet 3.0 look like? Decentralized and more open. (stratechery.com)EnvironmentWant a better ocean? Eat more … [Read More...]

Thursday links: untethered from its purpose

January 14, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsPenny stock volume is off the charts. (sentimentrader.com)The factors behind the surge in retail options trading. (economist.com)Big IPO pops just keep happening. (cnbc.com)StrategyInvestors today are going to have to get used to a new macroeconomic regime. (awealthofcommonsense.com)2020 is a great reminder why trying to forecast markets is futile. (ritholtz.com)Why you should take a look back at your 2020 investing decisions. (realreturns.blog)CryptoCrypto investment firm Grayscale saw AUM surge tenfold in 2020. (markets.businessinsider.com)A former Bitcoin miner raises some alarm bells. (institutionalinvestor.com)When it comes to cryptocurrency there’s Bitcoin, Ethereum and everything else. (visualcapitalist.com)SPACsWith so many SPACs the balance of power has shifted to potential acquisition targets. (institutionalinvestor.com)Why are SPACs still so U.S.-centric? (qz.com)FundsThe pandemic did not put a … [Read More...]

Join Me at the World Money Show Orlando this February

January 13, 2021 by Corey Rosenbloom

It’s rapidly approaching and really will be here before you know it!  Don’t hesitate! We’ll be looking forward to seeing you! I’m excited about this opportunity to share some of the latest research and trading experience with you. I’ll unveil new tactics and strategies designed for our current “runaway” market and the tactics that will keep you on the right side of price action especially when price reverses from the current uptrend. Join us!  Register and learn more today. Corey [Read More...]

Wednesday links: risks not yet realized

January 13, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsLast week was the sixth busiest, by share volume, for US equities in history. (msn.com)A record number of open call options, means a record amount of gamma. (sentimentrader.com)Commodity prices are on the rise. (economist.com)StrategyJoe Wiggins, “Investors should make as few forecasts as possible and avoid at all costs making narrow, specific or short-term forecasts, where our success rate will be miserably low.” (behaviouralinvestment.com)As an investor you have to be willing to re-visit your own biases. (theirrelevantinvestor.com)AppleThe M1 chip was a long time coming. (kensegall.com)Making the case for a 12-inch Macbook Air. (macworld.com)Dan Moren, “Apple’s tracking tags are probably the worst kept secret in the history of the company’s products…” (sixcolors.com)FinanceWhy the newly public Affirm ($AFRM) … [Read More...]

Research links: the risky shift effect

January 13, 2021 by abnormalreturns

QuotesMeb Faber, “Most of the excess returns from the best performing stock periods have come from valuations going from really low back to average or above. (and vice versa).” (mebfaber.com)Larry Swedroe, “The conventional wisdom that past performance is a strong predictor of future performance is so strongly ingrained in our culture that it seems almost no one stops to ask if the conventional wisdom is correct, even in the face of persistent failure.” (evidenceinvestor.com)Johann Colloredo-Mansfeld, “Historically, markets demonstrate a cyclical fallibility. Investors tend to over-extend when heading into bad times and exhibit excessive caution when heading into good times.” (mailchi.mp)Paper”Cryptoassets: The Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Cryptocurrency for Investment Professionals” by Matt Hougan and David Lawant. (cfainstitute.org)”Why is … [Read More...]

Tuesday links: finding value

January 12, 2021 by abnormalreturns

StrategyThe relationship between interest rates and asset classes is complicated. (capitalspectator.com)If you have to invest in a sector or theme, limit your exposure. (monevator.com)Beating the market requires skill, discipline and luck. (zeninvestor.org)Even smart people make investment mistakes. (evidenceinvestor.com)TeslaThe crazy Tesla ($TSLA) story by the numbers. (compoundadvisors.com)At some point don’t you have to take some profits and diversify your portfolio? (ofdollarsanddata.com)Why you are likely to miss out on the next Tesla ($TSLA). (impersonalfinances.com)Decision makingMore information and data does not making for better decisions. (awealthofcommonsense.com)For better or worse, humans are story-telling machines. (ritholtz.com)CryptoIt is estimated some 20% of Bitcoin are stranded in lost wallets. (nytimes.com)Brokers are struggling to manage the volatility of Bitcoin trading on the back end. … [Read More...]

Monday links: cruel markets

January 11, 2021 by abnormalreturns

MarketsSigns of speculation are easy to find. (theirrelevantinvestor.com)The Citi Panic / Euphoria model is at a record high. (sentimentrader.com)Another measure showing the breadth of the current equity rally. (allstarcharts.com)Markets get really basic stuff wrong all the time. (ft.com)RetailRetail traders are gathering in new places to discuss stocks. (wsj.com)A Q&A with the guy betting it all on Tesla ($TSLA) shares. (330ramp.com)A majority of the English Premier League have sponsorship deals with trading platforms. (evidenceinvestor.com)CryptoICE ($ICE), will take its cryptocurrency venture, Bakkt, public by merging it with a SPAC. (wsj.com)What problem does Bitcoin actually solve? (justinpaterno.com)CompaniesPeople bought a lot of WD-40 ($WDFC) while at home. (bloomberg.com)Airbnb ($ABNB) hosts are trying to get around paying the platform for rentals. … [Read More...]

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Bitcoin news

Bitcoin in jeopardy, Ether briefly breaks records, Biden takes action: Hodler’s Digest, Jan. 17–23

January 23, 2021 by

White House Commitment To Small Businesses Key To Solving Economic Crisis

January 23, 2021 by Bitcoin Warrior

Here’s the Key Demand Zone Ethereum Might Test Before Surging Higher

January 23, 2021 by Cole Petersen

  • I was trying to explain Bitcoin to my Granny over Christmas, so for my birthday she "went online and bought a Bitcoin" for me. I don’t have…
  • Bitcoin 2017 Vs. 2021: How This Bull Run Is Different
  • Valkyrie Digital Assets Files for Bitcoin ETF
  • Premium on Grayscale’s GBTC Drops as Reports of New Trusts Emerge: Chinese Crypto Community Unhappy
  • The NRA declares bankruptcy: 5 questions answered

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Last updated: 5 minutes ago

Financial Markets Breaking News

Daily Forex Signals

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January 23, 2021 by admin

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Outlook – Trying to Stem Recent Heavy Losses

January 23, 2021 by Nick Cawley

Long Term Forex Trading Strategy – Make Big Profits!

January 23, 2021 by R.Roy

  • USD/JPY Outlook: Yen Falters Today but Faces Stout Topside Resistance
  • China banks bought 158bn USD in FX for 2020
  • Midday Forex Prediction For January 22, 2021
  • Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
  • Forex for January 22, 2021. Prediction and Analysis

World Markets Watch

Market Data by TradingView

Forex Research & Tech. Analysis

Gann Time Cycle, Financial Astrology Help Trading Stocks, Commodities

January 23, 2021 by Bramesh

Tuesday AM

January 23, 2021 by Tim Knight

Pound slips on weak retail sales, PMIs

January 23, 2021 by Kenny Fisher

  • UK ministers to discuss tighter travel curbs – BBC
  • Oil and gold slip as dollar higher
  • FTSE 100, DAX 30 Technical Forecast For The Week Ahead
  • S&P and Nasdaq Again Can’t Get Past September Highs
  • Nifty Analysis for 25 Jan

Live currencies

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Macro Economics

If the UK government fails to do a deal over unfair competition it is not because of UK sovereignty. It’s because of crazy stupidity.

January 23, 2021 by Mainly Macro

Economists get the hatchet.

January 23, 2021 by

Extending START

January 23, 2021 by Barkley Rosser

  • Why the election for a new Liberal Democrat leader could be the key to voting Johnson out
  • Debt and Taxes III
  • About Time
  • Whether its COVID or Brexit, this government is continuing to fail terribly at everything it does. Will Conservative MPs do anything about it?
  • Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2020 Update





Stocks Markets

Top Insider Buys Highlight for the Week of Jan. 22

January 23, 2021 by

How Square is Cashing In. Plus, IPO-Palooza

January 23, 2021 by

‘Little People, Big World’: Caryn Chandler Allegedly Says It’s ‘A Big Fat No’ to Amy Roloff Ever Being Invited to Her Wedding to Matt Roloff

January 23, 2021 by Lauren Weiler

  • Psaki announces new White House effort to combat domestic extremism in wake of Capitol riot
  • 3 Buffett-Munger Stocks Expected to Show Strong Growth
  • Subs: Day 1, A Biden Gift 
  • Here Comes the Videogame IPO Wave
  • ‘Southern Charm’: The Season Finale Explains Why Madison LeCroy Isn’t Speaking to Several Cast Members
  • Biden’s foreign policy challenges, from Iran’s nuclear program to Russian hacking

Equities

Using Genomics to Find Olympic and Investment Gold

January 23, 2021 by

Options: "Rolling" Option Trades

January 23, 2021 by Noah Kiedrowski

Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: British Pound, OJ

January 23, 2021 by Don DeBartolo

  • Wallflower Value Stocks Are Ready to Dance
  • Professor Sanjay Bakshi pats on the back
  • Hello world!
  • Turner’s Take Podcast | Soybean Outlook
  • Five Ways to Tackle Risk in Emerging Equities

Business News

The Business Case for Boardroom Diversity

January 23, 2021 by Lauren Hirsch

Hone Your Email Marketing Writing with Zoho’s Free Webinar

January 23, 2021 by Small Business Editor

Over 3 dozen Democrats lawmakers urge Biden to commute the sentences of all remaining federal death row inmates

January 23, 2021 by

  • IKEA will open a store in Puebla, this would be its second branch in Mexico
  • Supporters’ words may haunt Trump at impeachment trial – The Associated Press
  • Can a Brash Executive in Kansas Save Movie Theaters?
  • In the News: More Small Business Owners Shifting to Digital Payments
  • Start with Nestlé

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