Polls vs Polls plus. Rule number 1 of forecasting is do not quarrel with fivethirtyeight.com Rule number 538 is not ever. So here I go. I am going to start with the fivethirtyeight Senate forecast(s). (s) because there are three and an “pick a model” icon to toggle them. I like the “lite” just polls […] [Read More...]
A macro view of how the 2020 Presidential election differs from 2016
A macro view of how the 2020 Presidential election differs from 2016 This is a light week for economic data, so don’t be surprised if I take a break for a day or two. In the meantime, I wanted to post a few graphs that I think give a good “macro” view of the Presidential […] [Read More...]
Who Is Replacing Justice Ruth Ginsburg?
DAILY KOS’s Joan Mc Carter gives an excellent rundown on trump’s two dumpster candidates (Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa) for SCOTUS to replace Justice Ruth Ginsburg. Putting their names in the same sentence as Justice Ruth Ginsburg’s should not diminish her but it does not preclude how low Repubs will stoop to achieve their […] [Read More...]
Lifted from comments (Fred C. Dobbs)
The most complicated election in modern history is coming — soon. Are we prepared? via @BostonGlobe – September 20 A TEST FOR DEMOCRACY Experts worry about a nightmare election during a pandemic marred by disenfranchisement and chaos, followed by an acrimonious legal and political dispute over the results that would test the nation’s democratic resolve. […] [Read More...]
The Danger Of Fascism With The Death Of RBG
The Danger Of Fascism With The Death Of RBG I try to avoid these terms like “fascism,” but it has become clear that Donald J. Trump actively seeks to become an at least authoritarian leader of the US, indeed openly arguing that the Constitution’s limit of only two terms should not hold for him. We […] [Read More...]
Wisconsin Supreme Court Blows Up Absentee Voting
Everything was running according to plan in Wisconsin. The state’s 72 county clerks print the ballots, mail them to voters, collect election results, and coordinate their canvassing boards, while 1,850 municipal clerks at the city, village, or township level operate the polling places and handle absentee ballots. The state had prepared for the national election […] [Read More...]
The Bahrain-Israel Mutual Recognition
The Bahrain-Israel Mutual Recognition This freshly announced mutual recognition follows the one between the UAE and Israel, which set a new pattern, with Bahrain and possibly others (Oman?) predicted to follow. I am not surprised it was Bahrain that was next, although it may prove to be the only one. There are several reasons why […] [Read More...]
62% of Americans are worried that ‘political pressure’ from the Trump administration will rush a coronavirus vaccine, new poll shows
A researcher works on a vaccine against the new coronavirus COVID-19 at the Copenhagen's University research lab in Copenhagen, Denmark, on March 23, 2020. THIBAULT SAVARY/AFP via Getty Images 62% of adults in the US worry that “political pressure from the Trump administration lead the FDA to rush to approve a coronavirus vaccine without making sure that it is safe and effective,” according to a new poll from Kaiser Family Foundation. President Donald Trump has claimed that a vaccine for coronavirus may be ready in time for the November presidential election. However, a number of public health experts have called this timeline unrealistic, and CEOs of top drug companies signed a pledge promising to prioritize safety over speed amid uneasy public confidence in the vaccine. Visit… [Read More...]
Sorry, partisans in denial: swing State polls have tightened
Sorry, partisans in denial: swing State polls have tightened It’s a slow economic news week, so let me follow up with some further information about movement in the polls. My usual caution: polls are *NOT* forecasts, just nowcasts estimating what would happen if the election were today. In the past few days, there is further […] [Read More...]
Double-Nickel Prediction
FEEDOK, that votes have been cast! Here is the outcome about what the Slope of Hope community believes is in store for the November 3rd election: And here is the prediction for where equity markets will be at the end of election week (that is, the Friday following the election). So, in sum, the participantsRead More 0 Comments [Read More...]