The moving average is one of the most popular technical indicators among futures traders. Moving averages come in many forms, including exponential, smoothed, and simple. For anyone interested in becoming better acquainted with these powerful tools, focusing on the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day period simple moving averages is a great place to begin. In this blog post, we’ll explore the ins and outs of moving average trading using the ever-popular E-mini S&P 500 futures contract for illustrative purposes. What Is a Moving Average? A moving average is a technical tool that calculates the average of a select range of pricing data points. It is represented visually as a single line that’s plotted as an overlay to an existing price chart. The simple moving average (SMA) is the … [Read More...]
S&P 500 Goes Bullish: COT Data
“Smart money” commercial hedgers are betting big on the equities rally, if positioning in S&P 500 futures and options is any guide.The latest Commitments of Traders report shows commercials boosting their net futures and options position to 1.9 standard deviations above the recent average, up from 1.11 standard deviations last week.My SPX position moves from bearish to bullish on the coming week’s open of trading thanks to the bullish commercial trader positioning.See my latest signals table for more details on the positioning in this and the other nine markets I trader using the free weekly COT data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.Good luck this week, and Happy Father’s Day to my dad and all the other dad readers out there. Hope you … [Read More...]
Natural Gas, Silver to Cash
Two signals go to cash on next week’s open of trading based on the latest Commitments of Traders data: natural gas and silver.That means eight of my 10 signals based on the free weekly COT reports will be in cash.Only the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond are bullish.See my latest signals table for detailed numbers on trader positioning in all 10 markets to see if you can figure out what it all means.Good luck this week, and Happy Canada Day to Canadian readers.Also, Happy Fourth of July to U.S. readers later in the week. [Read More...]
Smart Money Bullish on SPX Amid Quiet COT Data
No new signals from the latest Commitments of Traders report Friday afternoon. Traders are relatively quiet, according to the CFTC’s free weekly COT data.Minor development: “Smart money” S&P 500 commercial hedgers have been building their net futures and options positioning as a portion of total open interest.They’re now 1.7 standard deviations above the moving average of recent data. That signal has been bullish since June 16.See my latest signals table for more details on how traders are positioned in the 10 markets I trade using the COT reports. Good luck this week. ? ???? ????????????, ???????. [Read More...]
Wall Street jumps on election news
Equity markets boosted by impressive New York session Wall Street was swept with stimulus-mania overnight, as the Democrats completed a governmental clean sweep, and President Trump promised an orderly transition of power, sending indexes to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 rallied 1.48%, with the Nasdaq leaping 2.48% and the Dow Jones climbing 0.69%. Futures on the main US indexes continue the charge in Asia, moving higher by between 0.35 % and 0.40% today. New York’s sentiment has swept Asia with some notable exceptions. The Nikkei 225 has jumped 1.65% to multi-decade highs. The Kospi is a massive 2.75% higher, with Hyundai up 24% today after it announced talks with Apple over building an electric car. Taiwan is 1.0% higher, with Singapore rallying by 1.75%. … [Read More...]