Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 317 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we go over why higher interest rates can lead to both lower inflation and a recession. As rates go higher and inflation comes down, money flow will come out of the “inflation trade”. If the market thinks the economy will go into recession, demand for commodities will be reduced and prices will trade lower. The grain markets are not as sensitive to recessions as equities and other commodities. However, as risk assets decline, the ag markets will drift lower. Time is running out on a weather market for spring planted crops. After summer weather the… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Is Energy Policy Transitory?
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 320 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we start off talking about Canada raising interest rates by 1% and what it means for when the Fed meets later in July. We then move on to energy and discuss how much of the price inflation is due to policy and if energy policy can be considered transitory. Then we end with the grain and oilseed markets and what to look as we head into the tail end of our traditional weather market window. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast! About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Inflation, Recession, and Ag Prices
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 322 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast This week take a look at inflation, interest rates, and the looming recession. We talk about inflation from a structural perspective and then we dive into two types of transitory inflation. The conversation then moves to energy and why a recession is more bearish than tight supplies are bullish. We wrap up the podcast with N. American spring crops and why we think corn, soybeans, canola, and spring wheat are likely to decline between now and mid-September. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast! About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Recession Fears Weigh On Markets
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 316 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week by 75 basis points, just days after the latest CPI showed inflation over 8%. The S&P 500 is now down over 20% from the highs earlier this year, which is the technical definition of a bear market. Economists and traders are concerned the world will head into recession in 2023. Central banks typically use Quantitative Easing strategies when economies go into recession but due to high inflation the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the EU all need to raise interest rates and deploy Quantitative Tightening tools. QT will help… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Ag and Energy Markets Rebound
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 319 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we take a look at the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now numbers and determine the US was in recession for the first half of 2022. We then talk about the upcoming FOMC meetings and how the Fed gets to a 3.5% Fed Funds Rate by the end of the year. In the second half of the podcast we switch to energy and discuss why the real problem in the gasoline, heating oil, and diesel market is refining capacity. We wrap up talking about the grain and oilseed markets as we head into potential summer weather markets. Make… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | US In Recession?
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 321 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this podcast we start off talking the latest Federal Reserve interest rate hike and if they will raise rates another 75 basis points in September. We also talk about the US Q2 GDP -0.9% number that came out this morning. That is two negative quarters in a row, which is the technical definition of a recession. Then we finish with energy and the grain markets. Crude and Natural Gas should remain elevated. The US grain markets are in a weather rally. Canadian crops look very good. Soybeans will be pod setting and the first half of August looks hot… [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Down Goes Grains and Oilseeds
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 318 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Quarterly stocks came in as expected. Soybean acres were a bullish surprise at 88.3 million. None of that mattered as traders sold corn, wheat and soybeans into the close. The harvest of winter wheat in the N. Hemisphere has been pressuring all grain and oil seed markets. The major driver of grain and oilseed markets since late February has been the lack of export supply from Ukraine via the Black Sea. Now that new crop supply is coming to market the need for extreme price rationing is over (at least temporarily). Corn, soybeans, and spring wheat acres are now a… [Read More...]