Many mathematicians start with the same, single assumption when they commence any probabilistic modeling: the probability of a market moving higher or lower on any given day is 50%. Though this may seem oversimplified, it is actually quite true to practice if you look at the performance of a few Small Exchange markets in the last year: Market Symbol % of Days Higher % of Days Lower Small Technology STIX 49% 51% Small 10YR Yield S10Y 51% 49% Small US Dollar SFX 52% 48% Small Metals SPRE 49% 51% Small Crude Oil SMO 58% 42% Source: dxFeed (https://dxfeed.com) The uniformity of these statistics may seem unbelievable especially when you consider markets like Small US Dollar are pushing new highs since Summer 2020. It goes to … [Read More...]