The focus now shifts to the U.S. dollar. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release tomorrow and ahead of this key event there was very little consistency in the performance of the dollar. The greenback traded lower against JPY, AUD, NZD and CAD but moved higher versus EUR, GBP and CHF. After the strong increase in June, there’s no doubt that job growth slowed in July and the big question is by how much. Economists are currently calling for job growth around 180K and any reading greater than 200K will be positive for the dollar as long as the unemployment rate improves and average hourly earnings rise as expected. Any miss in the headline or underlying components will send the dollar tumbling lower. While the leading… [Read More...]
Where is the Dollar Headed this Week?
Sharing my view on the Dollar this week with CNCB’s Sara Eisen on World Wide Exchange. Bottom line – the greenback is STRONG. Watch the video now [Read More...]
Will August Payrolls Disappoint the Dollar?
The stakes are high for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report causing some trades to reduce long dollar positions ahead of the high profile release. Federal Reserve officials made it very clear that the decision on a rate rise in September would hinge in large part on tomorrow’s jobs report. If non-farm payrolls exceed 200K and the unemployment rate holds steady or better yet improves, then expectations for a rate hike this month will spike, sparking a broad based dollar rally that will take USD/JPY to fresh 1 month highs. If the numbers are strong enough, we could even see 105 USD/JPY. However, NFP disappoints we could see a nasty correction in the dollar particularly after the strong gains that it has seen this month. The steepest … [Read More...]
Bank of Canada September Preview
Here’s a look at how Canada’s economy changed since the last Bank of Canada meeting. Definitely more weakness than strength which means BoC could be more dovish [Read More...]
Here’s How to Trade the Sept ECB Rate Decision
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement is the most important event risk on the calendar this week. Aside from the rate decision, the central bank also releases its latest economic projections which helps to shape future policy plans. ECB President Draghi is expected to remind investors that inflation is low, the economy is weak and easier monetary policy may be needed. Consumer spending has been particularly soft, manufacturing and trade activity took a hit after Brexit and most importantly, inflation remains well below target with year over year core CPI growth slipping to 0.8% from 0.9% in August. However there have also been areas of improvement namely in business confidence, German spending and German stocks. Some are hoping for more QE but at most we expect … [Read More...]
How to Trade the Dollar into the Presidential Debate
Watch this clip for my views on how to trade the dollar into the Presidential debate http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000553944 [Read More...]
RBA Meeting Preview
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets tonight and new central bank governor is at the helm. Phillip Lowe, former RBA deputy governor succeeded Glenn Stevens and investors will be paying close attention to the new governor’s tone. Chances are he is going to play it safe and maintain the central bank’s upbeat outlook. The last time they convened they expressed confidence in the trend of growth and labor market. When Lowe spoke last month, he said the labor market is not as strong as the unemployment rate suggests and inflation is expected to remain low for some time. Taking a look at the table below, there has been as much improvement as deterioration in Australia’s economy since the last monetary policy meeting with broad improvements in China. … [Read More...]
Rise of the USD – How high can it go with
Rise of the USD – How high can it go with. Watch the clip on CNBC [Read More...]
VIDEO – Targets for GBP, USDJPY and EURO
Got the chance to appear on CNBC World Wide Exchange with Sara Eisen this morning talking about my Targets for GBP, USD/JPY and comments on EURO Watch Now. Lots of Good Stuff. [Read More...]
Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because….
Don’t be fooled by the pullback in the U.S. dollar today because the greenback could still strengthen further before the end of the year. Nearly all of the major currencies rebounded because of local factors and not a shift in appetite for U.S. dollars or change in economic fundamentals. There’s been no data so far this week and stocks consolidated after yesterday’s slide. The strength of USD/JPY, which is hovering around 114 and near 1.5 year highs is a confirmation of the dollar’s dominance. To answer the question of whether the dollar will get stronger, we have revisit the 4 main reasons why its been rising this year. 4 main reasons why the dollar keeps getting stronger 1. Good Data 2. Rising Interest Rates 3. Equity Market Pressure 4. Trade Policy Three … [Read More...]