Beyond the Spotlight is a weekly video released on Mondays that spotlights two or three markets that may become trading opportunities for the week ahead. This enables you as a subscriber of the Trade Spotlight advisory service to look ahead with us, while potentially creating additional trading opportunities for yourself. The week’s video linked below covers Natural Gas and Cotton markets. Beyond the Spotlight for the Week of May 10, 2021 Try Trade Spotlight Suite – for 3 Months Trade Spotlight Suite – Trial – The Trade Spotlight advisory service consists of three segments covering futures, futures spreads, and commodity options. At the end of each trading day the commodity markets are analyzed by applying our methodology and recommendations are delivered to you based on our trading philosophy. Our … [Read More...]
Professor Sanjay Bakshi pats on the back
I recently interacted with Prof. Sanjay Bakshi. He needs no introduction http://www.sanjaybakshi.net/It is truly an honour and a privilege to know someone like Prof Sanjay Bakshi, a legendary down to earth value investor and teacher to me, and one of my role models. His investing prowess has drawn value investing pilgrims to the mecca of MDI and corporate work from all corners of the world.What appeals to me above all are also the qualities of his heart, his encouragement and willingness to sacrifice some gains for allowing others to win and acts that enrich lives of others. Prof. Bakshi, I would like to thank you for your support, encouragement, willingness to inspire (equally it is an endorsement, ratification or in more crude… [Read More...]
Revenge of the old economy
Prices in the real economy are lagging far behind prices on the financial markets. But with a historic amount of stimulus, focused increasingly on an ‘old school’ recovery, a catchup appears to be in the making. Not before time. The graph below from Goldman Sachs is currently one of my favorites. All things linked to inflation – so, not only consumer prices but also wages and commodities – have failed to keep pace with prices on the financial markets. Not surprisingly, as monetary policy, and to some extent also fiscal policy, has focused exclusively on the financial markets since the global financial crisis. Back in 2008, that made sense. The entire system was on the verge of collapse. But in the ten subsequent years of recovery, little changed. … [Read More...]
Hello world!
Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start writing! [Read More...]
Are Bank-Loan Investors Getting What They Bargained For?
Investors who chose high-yield bank loans over high-yield bonds earlier this year, expecting to be insulated against rising rates, might be surprised to find that bonds might have worked out better. [Read More...]
Bitcoin: Make It Or Break It
One of our readers requested the update on cryptos, including Ethereum, this week. Here we go. The leading coin has taught us excellent lessons recently. I shared with you a bullish setup for Bitcoin a month ago. In the following update, I recommended to move the stop loss higher from $50k to $55k area to […] The post Bitcoin: Make It Or Break It appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
The Great Lockdown Recession
The IMF published new estimates for the global economy, which weren’t great – to put it mildly. The coming quarters will be historically poor and the risks will remain thereafter. Nevertheless, the financial markets have shown a strong recovery in recent weeks. Can these developments be reconciled with one another or will markets come under pressure again? Source: International Monetary Fund Biggest contraction in almost 100 years The IMF predicts that the global economy will contract by no less than 3% this year. This represents the biggest global economic downturn in almost a century. It’s no coincidence that the IMF has called it the ‘Great Lockdown Recession’, because along with the Great Depression and the great financial crisis, this too will go down in history. Unsurprisingly… [Read More...]
Weekly Stock Market Forecast
This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 5/9/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think! The S&P 500 (SPY) The S&P 500, (analyzed here using SPY) had created a topping process as I have […] The post Weekly Stock Market Forecast appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Could Silver Futures Hit $30?
Silver Futures Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 25.87 an ounce while currently trading at 27.48 up over $0.60 for the week, continuing its bullish momentum as prices are near a 2 1/2 month high. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 25.85 level, and […] The post Could Silver Futures Hit $30? appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Tired of Equity Trading? Stock Index Futures Are Worth a Look
If 2020 taught us anything, it’s that the unexpected can create chaos in the capital markets. For astute market participants, the COVID-19-inspired volatility presented a wide range of profitable opportunities. Unfortunately, those who focused their efforts solely upon equity trading missed out on the benefits of stock index futures. Let’s take a look at a few areas where equity futures outpace conventional stock offerings. Diversification According to Nasdaq’s financial dictionary, diversification is the dividing of “funds among a variety of securities with different risk, reward, and correlation statistics so as to minimize unsystematic risk.” As it relates to equity trading, diversification plays a key role in mitigating risk as well as capitalizing on aggregate market performance. However, truly diversifying your stock holdings is much easier said … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | May WASDE Preview
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 275 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast The USDA will release their May WASDE on Wednesday the 12th at 11am central. The May WASDE tends to be a big report because this is the first time the USDA includes new crop supply and demand tables for new crop. We go over the industry analyst estimates, what that means for prices, and where we could see some surprises. The spec trade is very long, prices are high, and we have a long way to go before this new crop is made. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you… [Read More...]
Your doctors could be wrong too, mine were
Whilst I may be just a toddler when it comes to understanding the dynamic interactions of food on the body at biological and chemical levels compared to medical experts.However, I believe I have hit upon a food related insight, after thoroughly investigating, successfully experimenting upon myself and post medical results before and after.FirstAs you know the nature of diseases are more lifestyle related on this side of millennium, I am no exception. I had a bit of burning in stomach, the ingenious doctors gave me Omeprazone, Pantaprozole for over 1 year, which are acid suppressing drugs, a first line standard treatment for stomach burning. Later I self-diagnosed myself as having lactose intolerance. Lactose intolerance occurred after 35 years of age. I stopped milk but did not… [Read More...]
Six Easy Pieces: Fundamentals of Asset Allocation Explained
Figuring out the best split for your assets often seems daunting. But it doesn’t have to be. This template can help you get started. [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Japanese Yen
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on May 7, 2021. Open Positions Long the June 2021 Japanese Yen contract on .91775 (5/07/21) Market settled at .920090. Marked-to-market profit of $393.75. Working Orders Sell stop for the Japanese Yen at .91350, below the recent lows, GTC. (Remaining Risk: $531.25, plus including commission and fees) Sell limit for the Japanese Yen at .94710, near the 200-day Moving Average, GTC. (Reward: $3,668.75, minus commission and fees) Closed Positions None. Step into the “Spotlight” Send questions specific to current or past trade recommendations, or any commodity related questions to tradespotlight@danielstrading.com. Beyond the Spotlight Watch your inbox Monday mornings for the Beyond the Spotlight video that will “spotlight” two to three markets that may setup… [Read More...]
Nucleus Software Exports (BSE India 531209) concall impressions
The impression I got was of a somewhat nonchalant and lackadaisical management. I found the company quite average in my interaction with them as well. They mentioned the words like trunk, branch (and tags) in investor conference call, which I don’t think someone outside software industry knows. I understood. That explained to me why Nucleus has not been able to scale as well, on the surface Nucleus appears to be a product company but working with various code streams on branches of code served by different human teams. It is a mess in terms of software development. On the positive note, there is room to improve profits without increasing sales, by employing half as many employees.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway’s_lawIt states: organizations which design systems … … [Read More...]
Japanese Equities: Has the Third Arrow Fallen Short?
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s latest blueprint for sustained long-term economic growth was met with quite a bit of skepticism. It’s easy to play down the so-called Third Arrow as an assortment of cryptic reform measures. But we believe that there’s some substance that warrants equity investors’ attention. [Read More...]
Bond issues
What to do with government bonds? The yield on government bonds is historically low, while the risk is high. In the event of rising inflation, they offer little or no buffer. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t ban them completely from multi-asset portfolios just yet. In one of my Daily Sketches I showed that, based on the Rule of 72, it would take 147 years for an investment in 10-year US Treasury bonds to become worth twice as much. The rule of 72 is where you divide 72 by the expected annual return to get to the approximate number of years it would take for that investment to double in value. And that’s the good news. For German Bunds, for which you have to pay for the privilege of owning them, … [Read More...]
Disappointing Jobs Report And Record Highs
The S&P 500 and DOW jumped to record levels on Friday despite a disappointing April jobs report. The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by just 266,000 in April, far less than the 1 million total economists were expecting, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% last month amid an escalating shortage […] The post Disappointing Jobs Report And Record Highs appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog. [Read More...]
Doomsday Indicator or Rare Opportunity?
Talking heads can share many attributes whether they represent politics, finance, or sports. One mutual trait that’s been particularly relevant lately is overdramatizing events. “That team would NEVER draft that player,” fictional NFL commentator says minutes before said team drafts said player. The Fed and interest rate analysts currently find themselves in a similar dance. After the US Federal Reserve announced no change in rates last week, many took to social media to hyperbolize and rant about how the Fed will never move rates off 0% and how this will cause an inevitable stock market crash. The Same Old Song Those who traded in the aftermath of 2008’s crash might be feeling some déjà vu these days relative to the will-they-or-won’t-they mentality … [Read More...]
Charlie Munger on Country Risk and Twaddle of being a Capital Allocator
Most of the questions have already been answered, hence ‘I have nothing to add’Reasoning behind the PetroChina investment? PetroChina is not opaque. It’s very similar to big oil companies elsewhere in the world. It’s the 4th most profitable oil company in the world – it produces as much crude as Exxon. It’s not complicated – it’s a big integrated oil company, so it’s fairly easy to get your mind around the economics of the business. The annual report will tell you more about the business than [the annual reports of] other oil giants. They tell you they’ll pay out 45% of their earnings, barring the unexpected. I like knowing that that cash will come to Berkshire. It was bought because it was very, very cheap by any … [Read More...]
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