Trading Candlesticks As many of you know, I have been trading for over 22 years. As the years go by I become a bigger and bigger fan of Candlestick analysis because it shows investor sentiment. Here are four of my friend Steve Bigelow’s latest “How to Trade…” series. Moving Averages – We all use moving averages. Here is the “insiders” way to profit from them Trend Analysis – The trend is your friend and now it becomes your profit center Projecting Price Targets – After you get he 1-2-3 signals from the Futures Trading Secrets Course, you will no exactly where to get out Gap Analysis – I love gaps and you will too after mastering this technique These programs are practically guarantied to work … [Read More...]
Price Action to Predict Market Turns
Predicting Market Turns with Price Action If you watch market action closely you will pick up on a reliable market pattern. Strangely enough it is almost totally independent of the time frames you use. It does not matter if you are using 1 minute 15 minute, one hour, daily or even weekly time frames. Watch this video or any of your charts on any stock, ETF, or index and research this for yourself. You will find that the market reverses itself after runs of 3-4-5 or 6 consecutive trends. Technically this is called the Reversion to the Mean. After a short run like this it seems to just run out of gas. 3-6 bars from William F. McCready on Vimeo. .dpsp-networks-btns-wrapper.dpsp-networks-btns-content {margin-bottom:20px !important} … [Read More...]
Continues to Ooze sweet
I wrote about this company as “The only company I like in Australia” two years backhttp://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2013/09/roe.htmlFor a developed country, it offered decent growth and was below the radar. Sadly, I only talked but not walked as the company was satisfied with 10% revenue growth. The stock has grown quite well backed by acquisitions, not only organic growth, and is 6 times up since 2013 when I wrote i.e. 210% CAGR.Even now no institution has evinced much interest in CAPILANO HONEY It is certainly hard to foresee such a strong performance from a mere low revenue compounder.But the 70% market share Capilano had in Australia, conjoined with 5% yield was screaming for attention.These days I am mulling a company which is … [Read More...]
Earnings Season Trading
How to trade Options and Futures During Earnings Season Earnings season is up on us again at the end of the quarter. First of all you will need to know what, when and how much the expected stock of your dreams is expected to move. You find this quite handily by going to Yahoo finance to find the date earning come out for your stock. You can highlight the stock to send you alerts if you like. We dot recommend placing order before earnings because the market makers tend to jack up the prices as the Implied Volatility (IV) rises. Rather we suggest you wait until after earnings are announced and if you are not sure of the direction of the stock movement, place either a straddle … [Read More...]
Crash Month is Near: Late September and early October have hietorically had large market crashes. Remember 1987. I am trading short most of this…
The post Crash Month is Near: Late September and early October have hietorically had large market crashes. Remember 1987. I am trading short most of this month to guard against large quick drops. appeared first on Futures Blog by Bill McCready. [Read More...]
Wide Moat Investing in a Leaky Boat market
I wrote six months back (March 2014) at http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2014/03/replicate-and-imitate.htmlthat “I missed Nigeria (A mistake I hope to fix in coming weeks and months).” I’ve not been smart enough and yet to correct that blunder.7UP Bottling (Pepsi Cola) at the time was 70 Nigerian Naira, in six months since then the latest price of 7UP is 162, these are high quality ideas where one can bet 10% of a large fund portfolio. In Calender 2014 the company has appreciated 128% as of date.Buffett, “Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks” In this case the ‘chronically leaking boat’ for me is absence of … [Read More...]
GlaxoSmithKline Nigeria – initial thoughts
GSK NigeriaAbstracts and thoughts based on previous four annual reports and some news articles:Revenue Growth between 2006 – 2010 at 12-14% rate2010 Turnover up 13% PAT up 45%, PE Ratio 10 -122011 Turnover up 28% PAT up 16% PE Ratio 1015 new products were launched in 2011 ! This is a great innovation metric used by 3M and Google. It quantifies an otherwise black art of innovation estimation.3M mandates that 35% of the revenues should come from products launched in the past four years. The company stands out distinctly with its assorted collection of knick knacks.GSK stood out in the past decade on this score. Some organisations call it “vitality index” or “innovation index”, measured as new product revenues dividedby total revenues. New product in Silicon Valley may be 9 months, 3 years… [Read More...]
Top Brands in Nigeria
Annual ranking of brands on the lines of Deliotte Fast 50, or Superbrands India is undertaken by top50brandsnigeria.com. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6ddpOiqN5eqdk8tZ3p6WWZFX1k/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6ddpOiqN5eqUkpYRUhTeXByYkU/view?usp=sharingFeeling like I’ve never been this lucky before since 2009, to have found three back to back bear markets. Generally staying in a single market takes 7-8 years of patience to find the next bull market eg: 1992, 2000, 2007, 2014 in India. But global investing opens the vistas for more frequent bear markets. Second opportunity afforded is going back to 1970s in 2014. Disclosure: Vested interest in positions discussed. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. I am not an investment adviser. Investment in … [Read More...]
Unilever Nigeria Halves in couple of months
From 63 Naira to 31 Naira in few months. 10% drop in sales and increase in interest payments. That’s it for now! More research and details to follow soon. “There is always a bear market somewhere !”Disclosure: Will start buying from Friday the 7th of November. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. I am not an investment adviser. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.http://www.elevendimension-funds.com [Read More...]
Saving 400$ on your New Zealand visit
New Zealand has tough, bordering on atrocious biosecurity laws, rightly so, 70% of flora and fauna is uniquely native to New Zealand and not to be found in any other country of the world. There is a real need to protect from pests ( if protecting native species is of importance). I won’t bring in my crazy ideas of infinitely mutable life forms transiently present few millennia, only to evolve out to other species. Let us assume plain vanilla Newtonian Darwinian view of Universe, all life is physical and only moderately change and its imperative to protect them. ( Globally a losing battle ). I respect this regardless of the fact that this 15 billion earth years old physical universe may have been created and dissolved countless times… [Read More...]
Nigeria Trivia
Nigeria, one-third larger than Texas and the most populous country in AfricaIts GDP has recently overtaken that of South Africa.The country is gradually transitioning from military to civilian rule, although with violence in northern part of the country. 75% in north and 50% in rest of the country is unbanked.Current population is 170 million (7th most populous country in World). Per capita income is 3000 USD ( India is at 1500 USD) Fertility rate is 6 births per woman.It is on track to be 3rd most populous country of the world by 2050 after China and India overtaking USA.Jumia.com, Konga.com are equivalents of flipkart.com, growing rapidly.Nigeria gained independence in 1960 and joined the Commonwealth. Most of the history has been marked by Army … [Read More...]
What News Moves the Market?
Rumors started to swirl concerning the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chairperson a little over a week ago.* Would President Biden nominate the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for another term, or would he go to the more dovish Democrat Lael Brainard? S10Y 10YR Treasury Yield Index Source: dxFeed Index Services (https://indexit.dxfeed.com) Interest rate markets, which the Fed has significant influence over, were likely expecting another term for Powell given that Treasury yields fell several basis points following even the mention of Brainard in the interview process. Though further developments in this story will be important for the future of the US economy at large, most traders were seeking the answer to just one question as the news broke: Are … [Read More...]
Africa in Pics and Prose
Prose courtesy John Suttonhttp://cordobafund.com/?p=35#more-35http://personal.lse.ac.uk/sutton/http://www.theigc.org/project/the-enterprise-map-series/Pics courtesy of Afrographique, Global Post Disclosure: Long Africa.Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. I am not an investment adviser. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.http://www.elevendimension-funds.com [Read More...]
The average return doesn’t exist (2020 edition)
Here’s this year’s update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog showing that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is seldomly seen in reality. And last year is another brilliant example of that. The Dow Jones Industrial Average realized a a positive return of more than 22% in 2019, miles away from the average return of 7.4% since 1900. It also underpins that using this long-term average for forecasting annual returns, as many professional forecasters tend to do, will do little good for your ‘guru’ status. Those who dare to put in ‘obviously’ far too bearish or far too bullish forecasts have (much) better odds in getting it right. The graph below shows the calendar year returns on the Dow Jones Industrial … [Read More...]
This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 11/22-11/26
Good morning Vidyard Recording The Week Ahead December CBOT options expire Friday. While this week will be essentially halved by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, volume on Friday could be large given the massive moves over the last few weeks in wheat. 580 Dec corn, 1280 Jan beans look to be upside targets for expiration in my opinion. Meanwhile wheat fireworks are likely given the expensive premiums for only 4 days of exposure to Dec futures. This week we expect to learn whether or not President Biden will re-nominate Jerome Powell or look in a different direction at Lael Brainard. Markets expect Biden to continue to let Powell to continue to drive the economy, although you have to wonder what he’s waiting for. If it more than political… [Read More...]
Africa in Infographics – Part Two
Sources : Various, including visual.ly and afrographicsDisclosure: Long Africa.Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. I am not an investment adviser. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.http://www.elevendimension-funds.com [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast | Thanksgiving Week
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 290 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast It is Thanksgiving week and we are already seeing lower volumes and less trader participation. Money flow is still coming into commodities from the inflation trade. Interest rates are on the rise. Western Europe nations are starting to impose lockdowns for COVID and that has pressured the energy markets. At the CBOT wheat continues to lead the ag markets. We talk about all of it on this week’s Turner’s Take podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may… [Read More...]
Africa Investing insights & enlightenment
I intend to cover a few key points regarding overseas investing with focus on Africa.First off, its harder to generate returns in Africa than I imagined a few months back. Returns are likely to be in a very narrow set of stocks.Essentially, I can lie with statistics, (http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728) to prove just about any point. That is why crowds of men (and women included) diverge vastly on opinion in the world on just about any domain, even ready to kill each other, not recognising, perhaps they can be ignorant, or worse blind. This difference of opinion persists due to ignorance. Concentrated portfolio makes money and Diversified portfolio makes money, equal, depends on the person and circumstances. … [Read More...]
Beyond the Spotlight: November 22, 2021 (Aussie Dollar, Wheat, Cocoa)
Beyond the Spotlight is a weekly video released on Mondays that spotlights two or three markets that may become trading opportunities for the week ahead. This enables you as a subscriber of the Trade Spotlight advisory service to look ahead with us, while potentially creating additional trading opportunities for yourself. The week’s video linked below covers the Australian Dollar, Spring Wheat, and Cocoa markets. Beyond the Spotlight for the Week of November 22, 2021 Subscribe to Trade Spotlight Suite Trade Spotlight Suite – The Trade Spotlight advisory service consists of three segments covering futures, futures spreads, and commodity options. At the end of each trading day the commodity markets are analyzed by applying our methodology and recommendations are delivered to you based on our trading philosophy. Our technique … [Read More...]
The average return doesn’t exist (2021 edition)
Welcome to this year’s update of the ‘average return doesn’t exist’ blog, revealing that the average return on equities is mostly a statistic, and is rarely seen in reality. However, paradoxically as it may seem, it is 2020, one of the most extraordinary and volatile years in history, which shows that the average return has not become extinct. The return on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 2020 measures 7.2%, just a whisker below the average return of 7.4% since 1900. Even though last year’s return was close to the long-term average, historical data show that using this long-term average for forecasting annual returns comes with a low probability of getting it right. Those who dare to put in ‘obviously’ far too bullish forecasts have much … [Read More...]