Forecasting which political party will win the next election three or more years out, much like economic forecasts of what growth or inflation will be in two years’ time, is setting yourself up to fail [1]. But learning from errors can still be useful. Only a year and a half ago, I wrote a long postentitled “As things stand, the chances of defeating Johnson at the next election are minuscule”. It was full of analysis about why Johnson had won in 2019, about how Labour would have to appeal to social conservatives to win and how difficult that would be without, at least, some form of progressive alliance. I stand by that analysis, and indeed by being friendlier to the Liberal Democrats and social conservatives Labour have… [Read More...]
Max Bench Calc – 1 Max Rep Calculator
Anyone who spends any significant time “under the bar” is going to eventually want to know what a 1 rep max bench calc and a squat max chart are. The problem is that you’re likely not hitting the gym to go for a new max bench anytime soon, nor should you even attempt a new… The post Max Bench Calc – 1 Max Rep Calculator appeared first on Anabolicco. [Read More...]
What News Was in My In-Box, Nov. 30, 2022
Healthcare and the Environment appear to be the issues talked about in this installment of links. It was pretty clear this week in what showed up in my In-Box. Two of the topics I marked with the hope you might read them. Healthcare Insurance Claim denial and also Solar Panel efficiency. Not surprised healthcare insurance […] The post What News Was in My In-Box, Nov. 30, 2022 appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
On Brexit films, Brexit books and Brexit television
Our Bagehot columnist shares some thoughts, from Los Angeles to Alan Partridge [Read More...]
Why it is crucial to understand why financial markets move, rather than worry about the role of markets in aiding the downfall of a Chancellor and…
Introduction The media sometimes uses a financial crisis in much the same way as religious leaders might have once used natural disasters. Because market moves are the result of the actions of large numbers of traders, who have heterogeneous views and are mainly interested in predicting each other, this allows commentators to say almost whatever they like about the causes of these moves without much fear of being quickly proved wrong. Mysterious or vague language is used, like ‘credibility’. In addition and for the same reason it encourages hysterical pronouncements like ‘there is no floor to sterling’ or ‘no ceiling for interest rates’. In short, financial markets are sometimes treated as a vengeful god, with no shortage of priests around to tell us why it is displeased… [Read More...]
Steroid Weight Gains – Tips For Steroid Users
One of the biggest complaints that users of anabolic steroids have is their inability to maintain their gains post cycle. Here are a few things to consider. Have the Right Expectations The first thing you must do is come to terms with the fact that the gains you get from anabolic steroids are not natural. If… The post Steroid Weight Gains – Tips For Steroid Users appeared first on Anabolicco. [Read More...]
On protesting “nuns”, a Labour “defection” and a story about “Andre Previn”
This week, things are not what they seem for our Britain columnist [Read More...]
House price indexes continue to show the top is in
– by New Deal democrat House price indexes continue to show the top is in The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported this morning, with both continuing to show that the peak in house prices took place during the summer. For the month, the seasonally adjusted FHFA index rose +0.1%, vs. a […] The post House price indexes continue to show the top is in appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
It makes no economic sense to keep shrinking the state without changing what the state is meant to do.
Since Chancellor Hunt cancelled his predecessor’s cancelling of the rise in corporation tax and postponed indefinitely the cut in income taxes, but did not cancel the cancellation of the rise in national insurance contributions, there has been much talk of Austerity 2.0. I’m not sure I like the label Austerity 2.0 as a description of possible future public spending cuts. The label austerity for the cuts after 2010 made some sense to me because it was about cutting public spending at just the wrong time in the economic cycle. It ignored everything we learnt from The General Theory that is now embodied in state of the art macroeconomics. It didn’t just make users of public services worse off, but it made everyone worse off by reducing national income. Some of… [Read More...]
Schmuck!
SOURCE: Funny Economist – Randall Parker’s Completely Serious Macroeconomics Blog – Read entire story here.
Do Steroids Show Up On Drug Tests?
Whether or not they show up on drug tests depends on the type of test you take. Almost all athletes and bodybuilders are subject to specialized drug tests, which check primarily for their presence. Sporting Events If you are a competitive bodybuilder, or if you play a competitive sport, then chances are high that you… The post Do Steroids Show Up On Drug Tests? appeared first on Anabolicco. [Read More...]
On political paralysis, British intellectuals and the wisdom of Victorians
Our Britain columnist offers Theresa May a dramatic suggestion [Read More...]
Three days of deliberations after Eight Weeks of Trial . . . a Conviction
“November 29, 2022,” Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Today, after an eight-week trial and three days of deliberations, a jury of five women and seven men found Elmer Stewart Rhodes III, 57, the founder and leader of the right-wing Oath Keepers gang, and Kelly Meggs, 53, who led the Florida chapter of […] The post Three days of deliberations after Eight Weeks of Trial . . . a Conviction appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Why is the Bank of England making the expected UK recession worse?
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (hereafter ‘the Bank’), by raising interest rates over the last six months, intends to play its part in creating a prolonged UK recession. This is not speculation but a statement of fact. The Bank’s latest forecast, similar to the one in August thatI highlighted in an earlier post, suggests negative growth in GDP in the third quarter of this year, forecasts a further fall in the fourth quarter, with further falls during the first half of next year. Why does the Bank think it needs to help create a prolonged recession? It is not because energy and food prices are giving us around 10% inflation, because a UK recession will do almost nothing to bring energy and food… [Read More...]
Schmuck too!
Who would say something like that except for some nasty old gink? [Read More...]
Types Of Steroids – A Guide To The Differences
Different people think of different things when they hear the term “steroid”. Some think of medications prescribed by doctors to help reduce inflammation and treat illness, but others think of their impact on performance, size, and strength. This comprehensive guide to the differences will help you better understand what they are and how they work…. The post Types Of Steroids – A Guide To The Differences appeared first on Anabolicco. [Read More...]
On democracy, Sir Lewis Namier and the struggles of the super-rich
Our Britain columnist has not lost all faith in his country’s parliament [Read More...]
Open thread Nov. 29, 2022
The post Open thread Nov. 29, 2022 appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Missing a fiscal rule does not make a black hole, and a financial crisis after tax cuts does not mean markets want spending cuts
Although the Autumn Statement has been postponed until this week, talk about black holes in the public finances continues unabated. I have always hated this term, which now seems almost de rigueur among economic and political journalists. A black hole in the public finances is just the amount by which the government is forecast to miss some fiscal rule. Connections between a real black hole and a black hole in the public finances is an empty set. Why do journalists talk about mythical ‘black holes in the public finances’, rather than ‘forecasts of how much fiscal rules will be missed’? I suspect a headline involving the term ‘fiscal rule’ will turn many readers off, whereas everyone knows what a hole in a budget means, and calling it… [Read More...]
Whack ’em and stack ’em.
SOURCE: Funny Economist – Randall Parker’s Completely Serious Macroeconomics Blog – Read entire story here.
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