US The labor market is still strong but is showing signs it is ready to soften as wages cool.  Wall Street will pay close attention to the February inflation report.  Disinflation trends are struggling here and a hot report could not only lock the Fed into boosting their hiking pace but possibly lead markets into expecting a higher peak rate.  Headline inflation is expected to slow from 6.4% to 6.0%.  The monthly inflation rate is expected to edge lower from 0.5% to 0.4%, while the core reading is expected to hold steady at the 0.4% pace.  While the inflation report will get the majority of the attention, traders should also pay close attention to the February retail sales data which should show consumer spending is weakening.  Housing … [Read More...]

US The US has a very busy week ahead.  The two main events are Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress and the nonfarm payroll report.  Powell’s two days at Capitol Hill will undoubtedly draw scrutiny from lawmakers as more tightening will raise the risk this economy is recession bound.  Traders will look to see how hawkish Powell will remain given the mostly strong data, recently. The nonfarm payroll report is the main economic release of the week.  After a jaw-dropping 517,000 jobs were created in January, traders will look to see if that number gets a serious downward revision and if February’s job growth slows to 200,000.  Wage pressures are also key and if average hourly earnings come in hotter-than-expected that could fuel more … [Read More...]