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Understanding the FOMC through the eyes of a child

February 1, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture Credit: Harper Collins, Simon & Schuster, with an assist from Pinetools.com || As is common with ChatGPT: explain this to me in a way that a five year old would understand. I have five grandchildren living near me. The oldest one is three, the second oldest is two. The two oldest ones are boys, and they love me. Grandpa is a lot of fun. I read to them, and play with them. I am slightly unpredictable to them, enough so that it makes them test me as they play with me. I never do anything their parents would not like, but the parents appreciate the way I take care of them. I even change diapers! But from my grandchildren, and remembering my children, I appreciate … [Read More...]

Unstable Value Funds (VII)

January 27, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture Credit: Boston Public Library || When total systemic leverage is so high, you can’t tell what might go wrong Because of the fall in interest rates since the last post, the risks have declined with Stable Value Funds. That said, the FOMC still sounds hawkish, even though the yield curve is inverted. The FOMC needs fewer macroeconomists, and more economic historians. They are deluded by the bad models of the last fifty-five years, which lack any credibility outside of the sterility of academia. Here are the two equations that I left out of the last piece. How to calculate the premium/discount of a stable value fund: How to calculate the annualized yield to maturity: Here are the definitions: BV: Book value — the … [Read More...]

An Analogy for Some Facets of Crypto

January 26, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture Credit: Kent Schimke || Ah, the downward spiral of cryptocurrency assets! What I am writing was sparked by what is happening with FTX, which reminded me of promoted penny stocks. Now, before I go on to that, let me mention what the results were regarding the promoted penny stocks that I wrote articles about the last one of which was written a little less than seven years ago. I only wrote about promoted penny stocks when I personally received a promotion, whether by snail mail or email. Of the 32 stocks I wrote about, how many failed in entire? Twenty-four. How many have a market cap over $1 million? Three. How many actually appreciated in price from the time I wrote the article? One, Barfresh [BRFH], … [Read More...]

The Value of a CFA Charter: Ethics

January 26, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture Credit: Marco Verch Professional Photographer || Being a financial analyst is being a competent generalist in business Let me tell you why I am writing this, roughly three years later than I said I would. It started with a post I entitled Limits. The post itself is not why I am writing this, but in the the comments there was great criticism of the CFA Institute. They asked me what I thought of the criticisms and I said I would write about it. I suspect no one will like this post. I will mention that I served on the board of the Baltimore CFA Society for 12 years, serving nine years as its Secretary, and two years as its programs chair. I am grateful that I earned … [Read More...]

It is not a Bad Time to Retire

January 26, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture credit: Kevin Trotman || In general, it is probably best to put off retirement as long as you can… I’ve seen a number of articles suggesting that it is a bad time to retire at present, because the market value of portfolios has declined. I’m here to tell you that the opposite is true. Picture Credit: Aleph Blog. Who else would do a graph this lame? Why did I pick these three dates to show you the US Treasury Yield Curve? On 1/3/2022, the stock market hit its high point. On 11/7/2022, pessimism about FOMC policy hit its high point. 12/13/2022 is now, leaving aside the rally in long Treasuries after the FOMC announcement on 12/14/2022. Yes, asset values on a mark-to-market basis have declined by … [Read More...]

Talk is Cheap, but Money Talks

January 26, 2023 by David Merkel

Photo Credit: Inhabitat || What is wealth, but concentrated efforts from the past organized by a man? I’ve written on this topic many times, and I summarized my thoughts in this piece, Understanding Investment Consensus. Journalists and investors are often cavalier regarding how the market is positioned versus a given issue. Just because journalists and bloggers talk about something that is a possible crisis, that does not mean that investors have acted on those opinions. Think of our last two major crises, the Great Financial Crisis (2008) and the Dot-Com Bubble (2000). Were there many people warning about those events in advance? Yes, there were many who did so. Did institutional investors react to these correct predictions? No, they didn’t. Why? First, … [Read More...]

Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2022 Update

January 25, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture Credit: Aleph Blog || I know this is late, but still, here it is… At September 30th, 2022, the S&P 500 was priced to return 4.14%/year over the next ten years. Given the rally since then, that return has shrunk to 3.20%/year. Does that sound attractive? It is lower than the yield on the 10-year T-note, and lower than current inflation (which is falling like a stone, don’t tell the geniuses at the FOMC). And you could be adventurous, as I was when I was a corporate bond manager (2001-2003) buying long single-A and BBB/Baa bonds. Even at 10 year maturities, you can get well over 5% for sound credits. The stock market needs to fall around 20% to be at … [Read More...]

Sorted Weekly Tweets

January 25, 2023 by David Merkel

Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Running at the beach Non-US New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s resignation highlights the complexity of post-Covid economic challenges https://t.co/wYjiYV0MLi People got tired of an overly interventionist leader who did not listen. Jan 20, 2023 Argentina’s plan to repurchase $1 billion of its deeply distressed dollar bonds has emerging-market investors scratching their heads https://t.co/hlu9qSfIrI If you are going to do this, don’t announce it in advance. Just do it quietly. Jan 19, 2023 Entrepreneurs Flee China’s Heavy Hand: ‘You Don’t Have to Stay There’ https://t.co/Ijh5EWbg9A China faces a talent and capital drain. Once you experience freedom, no level of economic … [Read More...]

Bitcoin news

Binance Tax launched to prepare crypto users for the tax season

February 6, 2023 by

Gold Is Shining Again (After the Fed Killed King Dollar…Again)

February 6, 2023 by mjones

Bitcoin futures ETFs retain allure despite crypto winter

February 6, 2023 by

  • Daily Discussion, February 06, 2023
  • LevelField Financial To Become First FDIC-Insured Bank to Offer Traditional Banking And Bitcoin Services
  • First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Not Ready to Soar as Investors Await Fed Chair Speech, More Earnings
  • Comment on Transaction Fees by Anne Adeyemi
  • Market Strategist Predicts Gold Will Be the Top Performer in 2023 Over Cryptocurrencies and Equities

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Last updated: 5 minutes ago

Daily Forex Signals

Forex for January 6, 2023. Prediction and Analysis

February 6, 2023 by GainScope

USD/JPY Post FOMC: Fading Recession Perceptions See Moderate USDJPY Move

February 4, 2023 by Richard Snow

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD on the Precipice

February 4, 2023 by Warren Venketas

  • Midday Forex Prediction For February 3, 2023
  • EURUSD Gains As Eurozone Data Show Modest Return To Growth
  • SquaredFinancial – A Gateway to Diverse Financial Markets
  • Forex for February 3, 2023. Prediction and Analysis
  • Dow Conspicuously Lags S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Dollar Rebounds Ahead of NFPs

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Forex Research & Tech. Analysis

#Stockbreakouts

February 6, 2023 by

Blog Post: Day 16 of $QQQ short term up-trend; Buy $TQQQ on day 1 of this up-trend and it advanced through Friday, +29.5%, beating all but 4 of the…

February 6, 2023 by Dr. Wish

Nifty Weekly Forecast for 06-10 Feb

February 6, 2023 by Bramesh

  • A Good Day To Bet Against Stocks
  • EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could extend slide with a drop below 1.0760
  • Euro higher after eurozone inflation falls
  • Gold and Silver Technical Outlook: Is the Upward Pressure Fading?
  • Market surge continues

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Macro Economics

Sewage in rivers and on beaches may sink the Conservatives at the next election

February 6, 2023 by

The Unbearable Tightness of Peaking

February 6, 2023 by Sandwichman

The Tory Party is split down the middle

February 6, 2023 by

  • The Budget has left the UK economy with no good options, so why did this government make such an expensive mistake?
  • Of blue suits and smelly trainers
  • New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for January 30 – February 3
  • The self-destructive political right
  • Boris Johnson takes centre stage—from the sidelines





Stocks Markets

Daylight saving time: When will the clocks change this year?

February 6, 2023 by

Hedge Fund CIO: “China’s Helium Balloon Is A Distraction: The Real Risks Are Off The Radar”

February 6, 2023 by zerohedge

Educational Course & Mentorship

February 6, 2023 by Joshua Hayes

  • CBS News pressed Sen. Ted Cruz on why he’s running for reelection after he introduced a bill limiting senators to 2 terms in office: ‘Why aren’t you…
  • JPMorgan Warning: Israel Poses Higher Investment Risk
  • Insider Alert: An Insider Just Sold Spero Therapeutics Inc Shares
  • China fumes after US pops its balloon, warns of possible ‘responses’ to ‘clear overreaction’
  • US To Open 4 New Sites In Philippines, Accelerating ‘Pivot To Asia’
  • Insider Alert: An Insider Just Sold Bakkt Holdings Inc Shares

Equities

Continues to Ooze sweet

February 6, 2023 by Amit Arora

Turner’s Take Podcast | Grains and Oilseeds Grind Lower

February 5, 2023 by Craig Turner

Sandalwood Oil 100,000 INR or 1,500 USD / Kg TFS Corporation Australia

February 5, 2023 by Amit Arora

  • Turner’s Take Podcast | Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
  • Why India is still expensive Sensex @ 25,000 ( just 20% down from peak )
  • Turner’s Take Podcast | Jan WASDE Cuts Old Crop Production
  • NSE Kenya – 50 bagger
  • Tart Chart

Business News

FTX, Zuckerberg and What Happened at the DealBook Summit

February 6, 2023 by

Trellus Local Delivery Grants Available in New York

February 6, 2023 by Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead

6 Ways to Wring All the Value from Your Earned Media Coverage

February 6, 2023 by Michelle Garrett

  • Chinese spy balloons under Trump not discovered until after Biden took office – CNN
  • China keeps insisting its real-estate market is not in a crisis — even as just about every sign points to the opposite
  • Alphabet’s Profit Falls 34% Amid Ads Slowdown
  • How Technology is Helping Doctors Reduce Office Costs
  • Learn the Ins and Outs of Cybersecurity in Your Free Time with This Bundle, Now $24.99

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