OANDA Senior Market Analyst Asia Pacific Craig Erlam previews the day’s business and market news with Jonny Hart. This morning they discussed the week ahead and how the markets have started the week. [Read More...]

Correction may have further to run The rally in EURUSD has stalled over the last few sessions but the bounceback may not be quite so short-lived. After breaking below the 200/233 day SMA band in mid-June, the pair had broken into bearish territory, potentially opening up a much broader move to the downside in the months that followed. After falling back to 1.1754, a corrective move started and while that’s stalled, there may be more to run. The stall came around the 200/233 SMA band on the 4-hour chart and it’s since consolidated around that area. A break above here could see focus turn to the cluster of daily moving averages (55, 89, 200, 233) which fall around 1.20 and the 50 fib level (May highs to July lows). We … [Read More...]

The New Zealand dollar has settled down after some significant volatility late last week. NZD/USD is trading slightly below the 70 level, which has psychological significance. New Zealand job numbers could cement rate hike New Zealand releases key employment numbers on Tuesday for Q2, and these tier-1 events are the most important releases ahead of the next policy meeting on August 18th. The quarterly Employment Change and unemployment rate releases could have a significant impact on the movement of NZD/USD. Employment change is expected to post a gain of 0.7%, little changed from the Q1 reading of 0.6%. The unemployment rate has been moving downwards and fell to 4.7% in Q1, down from 4.9%. This positive trend is expected to continue, with a forecast of 4.5% … [Read More...]

The US dollar has shown broad declines on Thursday, and the Swiss franc has jumped on the bandwagon. The Swiss currency has broken below the 91 level today and USD/CHF is at its lowest level since mid-June. If the dollar’s downswing continues, the round number of 90, which has psychological importance, could find itself under pressure. Swiss data was a disappointment earlier the week, as the June ZEW Survey Expectations fell to 42.8, a sharp drop from 51.3 beforehand. Back in April, the index was at 72.2, and the sharp slowdown in business conditions is cause for concern. On Friday, we’ll get another look at the health of the economy, with the release of the July KoF Economic Barometer (7:00 GMT). This index is also in a downturn, … [Read More...]

Oil Oil prices have bounced back strongly after a rocky start to the week. OPEC+ struck a deal to slowly ramp up production each month by 400,000 with a view to erase all cuts by the end of next year. The week got off to a rocky start following a surge in Covid cases that led to questions about the strength of the recovery in the near term. That was quickly replaced by optimism on the back of a number of strong earnings reports and risk appetite has been strong since. WTI climbed quickly back above USD 70 and has held above here, with sights set back on this month’s highs around USD 76. While earnings have given cause for optimism, Covid cases are likely to continue to surge … [Read More...]

US stocks tumbled after a second day of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish testimony didn’t provide any fresh catalysts to buy risky assets. Investors were uninspired by today’s mixed economic data and third day of relatively strong bank earnings. Risk aversion is firmly in place, possibly because the earnings bar may have been set too high for the banks and because the reopening trade can’t get its groove back. It didn’t help having China’s economic growth reading overnight come in below expectations. Despite high expectations for a strong third quarter, the Russell 2000 index is trading at a two-month low. Some traders are growing nervous that we are at key top as the Nasdaq leads the decline even though the bond market rally is delivering another push … [Read More...]

Asian markets follow Wall Street and edge lower Asian markets after mostly lower today as US-Sino relations, mixed US data, and a rampaging delta-variant across the region all combine to weigh on sentiment into the weekend. Wall Street closed lower overnight, led by technology, as bullish momentum faded against a background of regulatory noise and Capitol Hill legislative confusion.   Notably, US long-dated yields continued to retreat on a firm transitory message from Mr Powell and Ms Yellen; Wall Street could not rally, despite a procession of decent earnings results. That suggests that markets will be vulnerable tonight to a weak US Retail Sales print as investors cast an eye to an increasingly cloudy third quarter.   The S&P 500 fell 0.33% while the Nasdaq lost 0.70… [Read More...]

Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya in New York.  This week they discuss inflation drivers, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress, Biden’s infrastructure bill, Chinese GDP, and bank earnings.  They also discuss what the week ahead has in store for financial markets. [Read More...]

There is plenty for Asia to think about today, with the BoJ unchanged, China clamping down on property developers, Australian lockdowns widening, New Zealand inflation ballooning, President Biden in Sino disconnect mode and of course, the delta-variant across Southeast Asia.   Before we get to all of that, though, a quiet look at the US overnight, Chairman Powell held his transitory inflation line in his second day of testimony on the Hill, with Treasury Secretary Yellen backing him up. However, she expressed some disquiet over rising house prices.   US bond yields fell once again, with the curve continuing to flatten, but the US dollar instead surprisingly remained firm, while US stocks retreated. The mixed bag of US data may account for some of the price action. Initial … [Read More...]

In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3861, up 0.01% on the day. Earlier in the day, the British pound climbed close to the 1.39 level before retracing these gains. UK wages jump, unemployment claims slide The June employment report was strong, which briefly sent the pound to higher ground. Unemployment claims fell by 114 thousand in June, after a decline of 92 thousand in May. Wages were up strongly in May, with the 7.3% gain outperforming the previous read of 5.7% and beating the consensus of 7.1%. The services sector showed a significant gain in payrolls, as the reopening of businesses has enabled the labour market to continue its strong recovery. Unemployment remains low, although it ticked upwards to 4.8% in May, up from 4.7%. This figure is … [Read More...]