As promised in my last post, below you will find what I am calling a “bubble basket” of tech stocks I have been taking a look at to varying degrees. The Russia/Ukraine situation is taking center stage in the markets these days, but I can’t really add much insight into the geopolitical landscape. From a stock perspective, the most I can offer is that maybe trimming energy exposure, if you have a nice chunk of it, would be an opportunistic move into the current rally. What I find far more intriguing from a long-term contrarian investing standpoint is sifting through the carnage in tech-land.The dozen companies shown here range from small cap (Redfin and Vimeo) all the way to mega cap (Amazon and … [Read More...]
Snowflake: Don’t Let The Insane Stock-Based Compensation Fool You
The stark contrast between tech stock valuations in 2022 vs 2021 has been a welcomed development for those of us in the camp that is quite sensitive to earnings multiples when making investment decisions. As share prices across the sector started to collapse I was eager to step in for long-term holding periods even though I knew the bottom would likely be below my initial entry point. Now that the shakeout has occurred, there are many bargains, but not everything is cheap.I was struck by an interview on CNBC yesterday with Brad Gerstner, who runs a tech-focused hedge fund called Altimeter Capital. Brad has been super bullish on Snowflake (SNOW) since the IPO given the company’s strong competitive position in a fast growing market. What I … [Read More...]
As Bubble Tech Rightfully Corrects, What Looks Good and What Doesn’t?
“This time” is never different. The last few years in techland reminded many of us of the late 1990’s bubble. Sure, not every detail is identical. Back then the mega caps traded at crazy prices too (the Cisco’s of the world at >100 times earnings) but this time 25-30x for Apple, Microsoft, Google, or Facebook might be on the rich side, but not grossly overvalued. And just as last time we had Amerindo, Van Wagoner, and Navallier, now we have seen history repeat with ARK Invest.Just as was the case 20 years ago, there will be great buying opportunities during this valuation reset. Netflix down 50%? Interesting. Amazon down 25%? Interesting. I will share a list of tech that doesn’t look expensive anymore in the coming weeks … [Read More...]
It’s Official: Tech Bubble 2.0 Has Burst
Economic bubbles are inevitable, much like the business cycle, but history shows they oftentimes don’t repeat in exactly the same way. For instance, I don’t think it’s likely we see another real estate bubble inflated by interest-only, pick-your-payment, or no-doc income loans, but there are other ways for property values to go bonkers. I would have said the same thing about the late 1990’s dot-com bubble, and I would have been wrong.Those of us who remember that time period recall that profitless companies with little more than a lackluster business model saw share prices surge just by issuing an “internet-related” press release. We were told the market opportunity was so big that the current iteration of the product or service … [Read More...]
Is It Time To Swipe Right On Match Group Stock?
A little over two years ago, IAC completed a full spin-off of its interest in dating app giant Match Group (MTCH) with the stock around $100 per share and a ~$30 billion equity value (a partial spin was consummated in 2015). As a holder of IAC at the time, I felt MTCH was priced fully and sold the MTCH shortly thereafter.Lately though the stock has been trading extremely weakly as revenue growth slows down (Tinder and other apps are reaching a more mature state). Match’s stock chart looks more like a profitless tech stock in the current market environment, but in reality this is a really “GARPy” situation because MTCH generates prolific free cash flow and has ever since it started trading on its own … [Read More...]